Consensus 2018 – if bitcoin is a religion, consensus & bitcoin price rise theory is heresy

in #bitcoin6 years ago

It’s not the first time you’ve heard this and here is another article saying the same thing –

https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/05/12/consensus-2018-will-be-the-next-big-catalyst-for-bitcoin-analyst-says/

“Based on the market reaction in the previous three events, analysts expect the prices of Bitcoin and altcoins to move upward. Fundstrat’s technician Robert Sluymer says Bitcoin has bottomed with an upside seen from here.”

What is consensus?

Consensus is CoinDesk’s annual blockchain technology summit. The 4th edition of Consensus, is happening this year, May 14-16, 2018 at the New York Hilton Midtown. Consensus 2018 will feature 250+ speakers and 4,000+ attendees from the leading industry startups, investors, financial institutions, enterprise tech leaders, and academic and policy groups who are building the foundations of the blockchain and digital currency economy.

Here is a list of Sponsors –

https://www.coindesk.com/events/consensus-2018/sponsors/

Here is how the attendance has evolved –

consensus.png

Every year consensus has coincided with price increases for bitcoin. Just because it has happened thrice, it is expected to happen again. But it may not. And that ‘may not’ is extremely important.

Bitcoin is a technology. The biggest catalyst for price increase is increase in adoption rate. We have very recently seen a massive frenzy around bitcoin at the end of 2017. Post that, we have been undergoing a big correction. Today marks the beginning of Consensus conference and bitcoin is down 3.5% for the day, altcoins are down even worse. Here is a scenario –

Bitcoin prices are down, People are hopeful and optimistic and are desperate for prices to go up. But they aren’t. They have made a fortune and register for consensus to find answers. Participation at the conference goes up. No fundamental change has happened. Consensus comes and goes, adoption stays the same. Prices fall further or consolidate between 8200-8800.

The above scenario is more realistic than what is being floated around – Consensus happens, people discuss bitcoin for a week and since there are more people discussing blockchain, someone starts buying bitcoin and buys loads of it. Prices rise to 15,000.

Guys, the conference has nothing to do with economic interest. It is lagging indicator of interest in bitcoin and crypto, not a leading indicator. Increase in bitcoin adoption was already highlighted during the sharp rise in 2017. 4800 attendees at consensus is a result of that and not the other way around. Please don’t fall for nonsense on the internet.

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