Altseason is back! - Analysis from 2017 cycle vs 2018 cycle.

in bitcoin •  7 months ago

So I just want to quickly summarise what some coins are doing and the gains they have been experiencing since the all time low for the market in march. Hopefully you can get a perspective of the potential for this altseason compared with the altseason from 2017 and what to expect for this year. So lets start :)

It was friday march 10th when the SEC finally came to a conclusion for the long awaited Winklevoss's Bitcoin ETF. Everyone was waiting for an approval because that would be the first signs of mass adoption from institutional investors (even tho they were already in but ya know...). The conclusion? REJECTED.
you can read more here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/laurashin/2017/03/10/sec-rejects-winklevoss-bitcoin-etf-sending-price-tumbling/#53dd63b7643c

That's the volatility you see here:
Screen Shot 2018-04-18 at 17.29.30.png

After that announcement Bitcoin's price hit 888. Sorry for those who sold that dip because it was the last time we ever saw that price and when the market started last year's rally.

1st Wave (March - September)

Screen Shot 2018-04-18 at 17.37.18.png
With a gain of 141% since that dip, the first peak of the bullrun was formed at around 4,700 in September.

Litecoin - it hit an all time low on march 10th at around 309,000 sats and after the first bull cycle, it was up almost 500% to 1,700,000 sats almost at it's peak at 2 million sats.
Screen Shot 2018-04-18 at 17.41.22.png

Ethereum - it also started it's bullrun after march 10th at 1,400,000 sats and for September it was 500% up just as litecoin, at 8,100,000 sats even tho it's peak was at 14 million sats.
Screen Shot 2018-04-18 at 17.43.59.png

Monero - that went from 1,000,000 sats to 3,300,000 with gains of 230%. This was Monero's peak.
Screen Shot 2018-04-18 at 17.57.57.png

Zcash - went from 3,000,000 to 6,300,000 with 120% gains even tho it's peak was around 15 million.
Screen Shot 2018-04-18 at 17.49.17.png

Ripple - XRP was seriously one of the biggest pumps of last year. Even after it's all time high of 24,000 sats, xrp was up 1,300% from its all time low of 400 sats to 6,000 sats.
Screen Shot 2018-04-18 at 18.03.35.png

NEM - Just as ripple, XEM also pulled a massive pump from 400 sats to an all time high of 13,000 sats crashing down to 6,000 sats by September but still having more than 1,000% in gains.
Screen Shot 2018-04-18 at 18.09.36.png

STEEM - and of course, STEEM, had gains of 440% by September from an all time low of 6,500 sats to 33,000 sats but the all time high was 85,000 sats in June.
Screen Shot 2018-04-18 at 18.16.10.png

2nd Wave

Bitcoin's second wave started with a dip from 3,800 jumping up to 7,300 in November. 115% up.
Screen Shot 2018-04-18 at 18.28.59.png

In this second wave however, altcoins took a dive and kept falling down with Ethereum down 45%, Litecoin down 60%, etc.
Ethereum Chart September - November
Screen Shot 2018-04-18 at 19.51.47.png
Litecoin Chart September - November
Screen Shot 2018-04-18 at 19.52.39.png

3rd Wave

Bitcoin's final wave started with a dip from 6,000 to the current all time high of 20,000. 220% up with an overall increase of almost 500%.
Screen Shot 2018-04-18 at 19.56.26.png

This lasted a month, where altcoins were bleeding due to BTC gains. Once the CME opened the future markets, that's when bitcoin's price started to be suppressed. This started the correction and the next pump for altcoins. Like Zcash pumping 200% and Steem pumping 460% since the low of december to the high of February.

Zcash chart December - February
Screen Shot 2018-04-18 at 20.00.01.png

Steem chart December - February*
Screen Shot 2018-04-18 at 20.00.53.png

So to sum it up:
Bitcoin went up, alts when up. Bitcoin went up, alts went down. Bitcoin went up, alts crashed. Bitcoin crashed, altcoins went up but overall usd market value started to crash due to bitcoin. Because of this altcoins crashed and bitcoin kept crashing. Now we are at a point where bitcoin is going up and altcoins are going up. That's my hunch that a new cycle is starting just as when the 2017's cycle started, both btc and alts were going up. If history repeats itself we will see a similar pattern this year.

Look at where we are right now.
Ethereum is at 6,500,000 sats, and it started climbing up from 5,300,000, the highest peak from the 1st wave of last year. Same as Litecoin, price is climbing up from the levels of the 1st wave of last year. Same with Steem and other coins. The real gem right now in my opinion is Zcash. If the altseason is starting again, ZEC is starting at the levels from march 10th of last year. Very few coins are at that level right now so this makes it a perfect entry to buy and hold for long term. Think about it, Ethereum is at 6.5 million sats and Zcash is at 3 million. Both reached an all time high of 15 million satoshis, the radical difference is supply and adoption. I believe ZEC has a lot of room to grow and being the best privacy positioned coin in the markets, it will have a promising future.

For now, Ethereum barely has 18% gains from the low at the beginning of April.
Screen Shot 2018-04-18 at 20.17.42.png

Zcash is at around 16%
Screen Shot 2018-04-18 at 20.18.51.png

Steem already has 75% of gains so it can be an early indicator once it reverses as to when will this wave generally end for other coins.
Screen Shot 2018-04-18 at 20.19.33.png

Waves is at 22%
Screen Shot 2018-04-18 at 20.22.41.png

Golem is at already 100% so this one might actually end earlier than steem. But I would say Golem is still just a graveler, the real golem will "evolve" later on.
Screen Shot 2018-04-18 at 20.23.38.png

So yeah, this post was about older coins, of course newer ones like IOTA, ADA, DRGN, RDN, TKY, etc are awesome coins too but I stick with the ones I started trading like LBRY, SC, DGB, XCP, XVC, pretty much poloniex coins haha.

Look at the overall altcoin marketcap breaking the 200 billion ceiling.
Screen Shot 2018-04-18 at 20.35.36.png

This could be very well a double top in market dominance for alts topping at a 25% while bitcoin bounces from 40%.
Screen Shot 2018-04-18 at 20.37.15.png

Anything can happen in this market but I hope this altseason will bring much profit to your portfolio, choose coins wisely, don't get greedy, exit partially with profit, close positions when you see fit and enjoy the rides. If this is not an altseason...then it will be very painful. :'/

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There was a mini alt season in May hahaha xD