Tom Lee says there are 3 things the Bitcoin Bears are getting wrong

in bitcoin •  2 months ago

Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors says there are 3 things the bears are currently getting wrong about bitcoin.

Tom Lee was on CNBC Fast Money last night and he tackled 3 key points that the bitcoin bears are currently running with.

These 3 key points were broken down by point and can be seen below.

(Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/cnbc-google-searches-for-bitcoin-down-75-since-early-2018)

Number 1: Google Searches for Bitcoin are down.

Tom says that bitcoin google searches are not a leading indicator for bitcoin.

He says that it is more of a coincidental indicator than anything else. As prices have fallen people have been less excited about bitcoin and therefor searches have tailed off.

However, he doesn't think that because searches are down it's signalling that bitcoin prices can't recover by the end of the year.

He is sticking to his $25k price target even with falling google search numbers.

Number 2: Bitcoin trading volumes are down significantly.

Tom admitted that bitcoin trading volumes are down signifcantly from December of last year.

In fact, they are down something like 80% from the volumes seen in December.

However, there is one big caveat to keep in mind. December was the parabolic blow off top for bitcoin and volumes traditionally soar during those events.

If you look at the second half of last year volumes, bitcoin volume is actually up something like 40% through the first half of this year.

Then if you compare a year ago to the same time we are in currently (January-June), volumes are up something like 900%.

So, yes volumes are down from the parabolic top seen in December, but they are gradually increasing year by year and up significantly over last year during the same time period.

Number 3: Why can't bitcoin break through $10k?

Tom says that it has some issues technically.

The chart is kind of a busted chart according to Tom and the bears have been in charge because of that.

He also says that the lack of regulatory clarity, especially in the US, is weighing heavily on markets.

That being said, he was quick to remind that bitcoin traditionally makes all of its gains in roughly 10 days out of the year.

Which means, that even though it is spending months below $10k, it could basically double in price in a matter of a couple days, which is exactly what it has done historically.

Once that big catalyst comes it won't matter what the charts say.

(Source: https://coinconnecter.com/novagrats-forsees-10k-bitcoin-in-2018/)

There you have it folks, Tom Lee says the bears are getting some of their main points wrong.

Stay informed my friends.

Source:

https://twitter.com/CNBCFastMoney/status/1003753277878624256

Image Source:

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/25/here-are-the-three-big-warning-signs-for-the-market-tom-lee.html

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Excellent content; keep it up @jcornel 👍

Adding some perspective to the present times. Is incredible that the gains are made in roughly ten days a year. That's why you hodl and Don try to Chace the market. Thanks for sharing.

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Absolutely. That's why I hate swing trading crypto: the FOMO kills me when I'm not holding it!

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The FOMO doesn't scare me, but the bots are good at stopping me out...

Flippening is gona happen. Bcash is full steam ahead with Roger Ver in the helm. Lots of marketing and such. I dont have skin on Bitcoin (core n cash)I believe most delligent investors, after a while, will see that there are better alternative as cryptocurrency. Digital gold is a sham and I think John Mcafee will be having his penis for dinner.

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Really? I can't say I share you same views on bch vs btc. I believe that bch will mostly be useless after a few upgrades to the legacy chain, but what do I know. :)

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That's alright, we all have different opinions on blockchains and we can sometimes be passionate about it. Frankly, I had enough of the BCH vs BTC debate, such as, on chain, off chain, fees high, digital gold, censorships, Roger Ver is a criminal. I am looking at the bigger picture, as long as the powers are taken off 'them', I don't care which, BTC, BCH, EOS. Goodluck to both core and cash.

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Lightning is going to make BCH close to worthless, in a couple of years.

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Ehehe the off chain thing again. Well let us wait 'till everyone actually can use it. Maybe 2 years should we say? At the moment BTC is broken.

very informative specially for new comers. thanks

December was a manipulation by wall street pure and simple, hyping a futures launch saying institutional money was coming when it was already here manipulating the price and using mainstream media advising people on how to buy Ripple when it was at the top of the market for example thanks cnbc :)

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Yes I am sure they were a big part of the run-up and then also the crash. Make money in both directions. Will they do it again?

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If there is money to made by the big boys, by pushing BTC price around, and making money on both the up and the down, you should assume that that BTC price manipulation is definitely occurring

Hey, @jrcornel Really great work my dear friend and I am glad to seen your daily post .many many thanks for sharing with us your important post.

As a former ecommerce guy I know that there are different levels of Google searches. Just searching for "Bitcoin" is the most generic search that someone just beginning their search would search for. Probably because they heard about the Bitcoin price on the news.

As a seller, you target long tail keywords like "buy bitcoin" or "bitcoin exchanges" etc. Those are the people ready to buy.

So you would only expect a Google trend when it's going parabolic. That's when the dumb money gets in and that's when the smart money sells.

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Exactly. Once these new people search "bitcoin" one time to get an idea of what it is, they have no reason to search for it again, hence the search numbers for "bitcoin" drop.

Es posible? lo que argumentas en esta publicación. me impresiona este análisis, me intriga...

Regarding the point on volumes, it also has to do with the fact that more and more BTC trades are occurring OTC (over the counter) so those volumes are not reported on exchanges.

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That is a great point. Though, how do you know that "more and more" are?

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I have read and heard at industry events that more wealthy individuals and family offices in the investment side are buying BTC. This also makes sense considering that major financial institutions are investing in the space (i.e. Goldman Sachs established a trading desk and their backed firm Circle is buying Poliniex).

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Yes but I mean how do you know that the number (or size) of OTC trades are increasing? Is there any data for this?

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I don’t think there is a way to distinguish them from the wallet transfer you can see on the blockchain. If you segregate the exchange wallets, I imagine it can be done. However, I do not have the actual figures. I am assuming it by what I have read and heard.

I think he is right that sometimes the lack of clear regulations plays against investors, many countries maintain in a legal limbo the world of cryptocurrencies, it is time to update and be at the forefront of the new.

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If the US lags behind many others they will get lapped in this new technology race.

Hopefully, these 3 points will work the way he is talking!
I don't know he has stuck to 25 k with this low volume searches.
Low searches give us the information that, now people are not interested in bitcoin!

@stephenkendal just make a pool and you will be surprised to see these people :)

@people chooses #digibyte over #bitcoin.

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Correct, though it may be a lagging indicator. IE when prices go up, more people get excited and check the prices. Also, once you search for bitcoin once in order to learn about it you don't really have a need to search for it again.

Tomorrow, June 6, is gonna be the new low so almost time to buy... he he! Should break 10,000 by July 6!

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Haha I am hoping we have already seen it!

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I think so... lot of action happening behind closed doors!

The main reason bitcoin hasn't risen above 20K is because of scaling. If transaction fees weren't up in the $30 - $100 range last December and the transactions could have kept up, we would have had mass adoption by now. The fact that it couldn't keep up, meant that users couldn't keep piling on to a network that was maxxed out. Please don't tell me I don't know what I'm talking about. I'm the CEO of my own tech company with over 20 years experience in software dev.

For this reason, in the near term, bitcoin cash actually has a better chance of reaching above 20K. However, as it continues to increase block sizes, latency will become an ever increasing problem and mining will be more centralized than it is now. So far mining centralization has not been a problem, but who knows what the future will bring.

The problem with LN is that it hasn't solved the scaling problem well enough so that anyone's grandma can send a transaction with the swipe of a finger across your smart phone. Until then LN can't solve the scaling issue because there will not be scale/demand. Your average person just isn't going to go to Github, compile LN and run their own server. This is what is currently required and it's a completely unrealistic demand to make of average users. So much so, it makes me wonder about Blockstream's real intentions.

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Nice comment and thanks for sharing your thoughts. However, I may have to take you up on your BCH more likely to reach $20k comment... I'd be willing to make a wager on that one. ;)

$25k is exactly what I would guess as the most realistic 31 December price too.

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If you are a long-term investor, you must look at several macro-factors including evolution of decentralized technologies that would determine the price of BTC in the mid to long term. This paper might enlighten you on this issue: https://steemit.com/cryptoassets/@orch/intergalactic-money-the-deep-impact-of-a-self-evolving-infinitely-scalable-general-purpose-realtime-unforkable-public-blockchain

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You're preaching to the converted, but thanks anyway, my research never ends. I'll give your paper a read.

Interesting. There are many who want Bitcoin to fail. But I see it as a great long term investment and will take some time.

Thanks for sharing @jrcornel

I still think BTC will continue slowly inching closer to a ~10k top in August. If the bears are clamping down on the price, whoever can anticipate when they realize what Lee says is going to make bank.

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Gains in 10 days a year.. what is he talking about? Look at the 2017 chart.

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He put out some research a few months back that showed if you take away the 10 best days in terms of price appreciation each year, bitcoin was basically flat to negative every year. Meaning that all the gains each year basically come on the 10 best days of the year.