Anyone actually think this happens?

Some out there are saying that if bitcoin holds up here, it's going to new highs.

Charts like this one are starting to pop up:

(Source: https://twitter.com/CrypToomas/status/1516341271899553797/photo/1)

While this seems plausible, it starts to get difficult to digest when thinking about the macro backdrop.

Unfortunately bitcoin does well when the dollar is weak, and with interest rates rising and set to continue to do so over the coming months, bitcoin is likely to struggle.

The only way this happens in my opinion is with a black swan to the upside, like a physically backed bitcoin ETF being approved or a major nation state adopting bitcoin as legal tender.

I don't see either happening this year, but you never know I guess.