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RE: What do the introduction of Futures Products really mean for the price of Bitcoin?
I am wondering that myself actually. I haven't been able to find whether they are all cash settled or not. Like you mentioned, if they are, and only based on market prices of bitcoin, the ability to manipulate wouldn't be as great.
In this Business Insider article it says:
So unless actual Bitcoin trading starts to follow the futures market (maybe because people think that's where the "smart money" is) I don't see how this will have any bearing on the actual price of BTC.
I agree if the hodlers continue to hodl. Issue many would raise are the new market entrants that may not be accustomed to a 100 vol product and bail out on the first 2000 point move in the physical, compounded by Coinbase's "technical issues" that invariably arise during such moves.
I have a doubt what if US government stops all crypto exchanges? Then our coin will still be safe?
If anything the introduction of a futures product further legitimizes the asset class with the regulators, both CFTC and SEC .. because I agree that drastic action against the exchanges will render chaos on the futures markets.
That's why it is not advised to leave all your money on such exchanges : they can shutdown for whatever reason. And you wouldn't be able to do much if this happens.
Both futures products will be cash settled, basis the physical spot exchanges (Gemini for CBOE, and an index for CME). Somewhat ironic given that a BTC is probably the easiest of any product to deliver. Would you rather receive a freight train full of live hogs or a block of bitcoins delivered to your address ? !!