Bitcoin is above it's 200 MA, that means an 80% win rate and 200% returns are on the horizon

in bitcoin •  2 months ago  (edited)

Bitcoin finally broke above it's 200 day moving average.

That is very good news for the bulls.

According to data compiled by Fundstrat Global Advisors, when bitcoin is above its 200 day moving average, it has a win rate of 80%.

That means that for every 10 days that bitcoin is above its 200 day moving average, it is green in roughly 8 out 10 of those.

Let that sink in for a bit...

We are green in 8 out of every 10 days that we are above the 200 day MA, nice!

The stats...

Bitcoin has been above its 200 day moving average 1,765 times (days), and of those times it was positive 80% of the time.

It has been below its 200 day moving average 923 times (days), and of those times it was positive only 36% of the time.

Which means, that when bitcoin is above its 200 day moving average it has a win ratio of roughly 80%:

(Source: https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/fundstrat-co-founder-cites-crypto-chart-calculus-says-bitcoins-200-day-moving-average-is-bullish/)

This is the first time that bitcoin has been above its 200 day moving average since March of 2018.

Which means, we have our first 200 day MA cross in over a year.

Currently the 200 day moving average is right around $4,700.

If prices continue to stay above that, we should have a lot more green days than red going forward.

That should also work as a nice support should we retest it.

What's more...

If you look at the average 6 month return when bitcoin is above its 200 day moving average...

The average 6 month return yields roughly 200% gains.

That means that if prices hold here above their 200 day moving average, we could expect to see bitcoin around $12k-$15k within the next 6 months if history were to repeat.

Not sure we will go that high that quickly, but hey we have math on our side at least!

Stay informed my friends.

-Doc

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and steem to follow?👍👍

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I certainly hope so. The fact that it didn't do much these past few days with bitcoin flying wasn't encouraging to say the least...

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Steem has its own mind... It's not minable like Bitcoin, so it goes up with a delay as people need to first cash out extra Bitcoin to buy Steem. For me, when Steem goes below 17000 sats, it's flag to start buying and when it goes above 27000 sats, it's time to start selling.

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Well there were several major coins that are not mine-able that still enjoyed much better price action the last few days than steem did, so I don't think that is it. I am not sure why it missed out on most of the love but it was pretty discouraging that it did.

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There hasn't been really positive news about Steem lately to warrant any buy rush... Recent wallet separation from steemit.com has only made life of users more complicated. People like me think Steem as long-time investment and that means it won't follow every movement of Bitcoin.

The hard fork introducing resource credits made Steem less appealing for new users and less active older users because they can only make very limited about of posts and comments due to price of one comment fluctuating a lot.

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True. Hopefully now that steemit.com is separated they can make some development on that happen, and happen rather quickly compared to how they have moved in the past. The wallet being attached seemed to be a major headwind in the past.

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I don't think their reasoning was valid. It did smell like an excuse to hide lack of competence. I have been developer for over 35 years and I think I have pretty good nose for excuses.

I haven't followed all hard forks but at least one of the most recent ones have backfired due to unexpected results that should have been something competent development team would have expected and as such would have taken in account when preparing the hard fork.

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There have been several hard forks where unexpected results happened. I think "incompetent" is a very fitting description of them.

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yea i was surprised it didn't move more?

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So was I... hopefully it will play catch-up now.

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you said it and steem followed! lol

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Sort of. It only jumped from 50th to 49th on Coinmarketcap I believe? Just checked... looks like it is back to 50th. Ugh.

Sweet Ginger Brown 👍😜👍

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Is that a good thing?

This is a really good news for the next bull run!

Posted using Partiko Android

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I think so as well.

Since the volume is still a bit low, much of the price is determined by trading bots. And those trading bots are programmed to use info like the 200 day MA, so this should be good indeed.

Posted using Partiko iOS

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Yep exactly, though these were the largest volume totals we have seen in some time, but compared to what we saw during the bubble of late 2017 and early 2018, you are right the volume totals were still a bit on the lower side. Either way though, something like 17 crypto algo funds have started up just in the last 6 months, many more that didn't file I am sure, so we have a lot more bots trading than ever before is my guess.

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17, that is quite a lot. People are getting ready for the move upwards or seems.

Posted using Partiko iOS

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They are seeing inefficient markets, which are exploitable by machines, so they are going for it.

Nice análisis! Good to know we could be in for a nice ride.. Thanks for sharing

Posted using Partiko Android

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You got it.

It will be a great foundation to consider as I am sure some short sellers could still be brave enough to try and challenge it!

Posted using Partiko iOS

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Most technical based 'shorters' will flip to the long side now that prices are above the 200 MA. Though this pullback will be crucial to see if we hold that line.

That 200% number is pretty zealous. I will be happy with just being slightly in the green monthly for a few years. Stability will make me happy.

Posted using Partiko Android

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Yep, that 200% number is just what bitcoin has done in the past when looking 6 months out when it is above it's 200 MA. Will it happen this time? Who knows, perhaps not though.

"If prices continue to stay above that, we should have a lot more green days" - Exactly, and as I like to say: history repeats itself, and we just need to look at the chart to see what happened last time we were above the 200 day MA.

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Yep, it often does. Rarely exactly, but it often rhymes.