Bitcoin can't possibly reach news highs this year, can it?

in bitcoin •  26 days ago

There is no chance bitcoin can reach new all time highs, is there?

That seems to be the narrative being thrown out by several people as of late.

Things along the lines of:

"Bitcoin doesn't have enough time to reach a new all time high."

OR

"Bitcoin is running out of time this year to make new highs."

That may be true in normal markets with normal assets, but bitcoin is not a normal market and it is not a normal asset.

Think about this for one second...

Last year, bitcoin was trading for $6,500 on November 13, and then it hit $19,500 on December 17th.

That means in roughly 34 days bitcoin rallied some 200%, or roughly 3X.

Yes, last year may have not been a normal rally as many are attributing much of that rally to price manipulation by whales and possibly even Wall Street.

However, that should give you an idea what is possible.

Today's prices...

As we sit here today, we have roughly 126 days left for bitcoin to make a new high and while that may not sound like much, keep in mind that it only need 34 days to go from a similar price as we are today all the way up near $20k.

Another thing to keep in mind is that traditionally bitcoin experiences the vast majority of its gains every year since 2013 in just 10 trading days.

Meaning that if you owned bitcoin on just those 10 days each year, it averages going up like 300%-500% on those days alone.

Now that is some serious price appreciation in a short amount of time!

It may or may not happen.

Keep in mind that I am not saying I expect new highs to hit this year, but I am saying that it is still certainly possible.

In fact think we are more likely to see price action similar to what is seen on the chart above, personally.

However, a catalyst like a bitcoin ETF being approved is likely all it would take to launch bitcoin to new highs by the end of this year.

Also, seasonally, the end of the year has been a very good time to own bitcoin.

Stay informed my friends.

Image Source:

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/10/13/business/bitcoin-takes-flight-china-eases-crackdown-cryptocurrency-split-set-new-highs/

Follow me: @jrcornel

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BTC is a pump-n-dump scheme, so the only thing that can move it up will be some kind of news.

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Pump-n-dump scheme? What do you mean by that exactly?

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Obviously this is my opinion and obviously it will not be shared by most people on this platform, but....

...if 99% of all alt-coins are considered sh*tcoins, what makes the other 1% different? "Mass Adoption"? Maybe. But the mob mentality is a fickle beast and can easily be swayed..

Back in the day, when there were only 3 coins, BTC, LTC, and DOGE, DOGE was considered a joke and LTC was considered the sh*tcoin. The only thing that set BTC apart was that it was first.

To this day, there is nothing backing it. Not precious metals, not diamonds, furs, agricultural products, nope, nothing of value. At least fiat currency has the backing of the government (for what that's worth).

So in a nutshell, it has nothing backing it except mass/mob adoption.

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Very true. Keep in mind that could also be said of gold though. Yes gold has some industrial use, but if it was priced strictly for its industrial and jewelry uses, it would be priced far lower than $1200. Things have value because people believe they do, bitcoin being no different. I would venture to say a lot of the money in bitcoin is not in it because it believes bitcoin will some day be the defacto currency of the world. No, I think most of the money in it see bitcoin as a store of value. One where the supply is fixed and known with no ability by governments to intervene. There are not many potential store of values that share those same characteristics out there.

Bitcoin can surely get to new highs with the right ingredients. However, while an ETF approval could be a catalyst, overall adoption or technology that could assist it like Lightning Network deployment would be best for a sustainable increase in prices. Prices could easily increase if you think about the amount of traders actually betting against it right now; it could lead to a massive short squeeze that forces traders to buy and cover positions.

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Yes it could. I think there is roughly $260 million worth of bitcoin short on Bitmex. Though it looks like there aren't many short using futures products anymore, just read something that said those numbers were lowest on record currently.

very nice comparison and this should give people again some trust that everything is possible in crypto

It can go up again....

If not this year, then we should be in for a massive spike next year, its only a matter of time. Im personally enjoying this accumulation phase and glad the hype died down there were too many unprofitable projects riding the wave and as we can now see the market is beginning to consolidate in BTC. If we do see a peak in December ill be ready to sell what i've hodl'd since i'm just not sure if i should take it out of crypto and deal with the tax implications, thinking of moving it into USDT or buying gold

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Yes, depending on where you are from the tax implications may be different. Here in the US anytime you sell any coin, it is a taxable event, even if you sell to buy another coin...

ETF approval can be the game changer for BTC.

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waiting for ETF to happen.

Can btc increase this year what do you thing

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Yes I think it can, but I don't think we hit new highs. I think somewhere around $12k is a more likely price target.

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Who knows.....

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People with a lot of money finally get borred. There are no other alternatives to invest their money with a quick win. So, holiday is over, money is burning in their pockets. Yep, they start trading again what else. Show other rich they have more money. And finally BTC will rise. Starting in October or November and high up in December. Human nature.

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Very possible. In fact, I am hoping that is the case.

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Hi $350.000.000 for Dash in a few hours, the money is still there ;-)

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this is the most possible outcome.

Very intresting Post Keep it up. Upvote

Yeah as it seems there is a lot of time still remaining and we might be able to spend some good days in the end of this year as well like the past year !

Irrespective of the bitcoin/crypto price , what I was trying to figure out is how many active projects and investments are happening in crypto space .if anyone has such information pls share. I think it will give an idea of where we will be with respect to price in few years

Fingers are crossed and hoping for to grow bitcoin more than 25000$. And I think this is possible to touch ATH again this year. Let’s see what’s in future

At that time there was no bitmex what to do with bitmex(which make a lot of resistance) because of it btc cant go high this year i am pretty much sure it will only touch $11000 but there will be no bull run this time possible if bitmex declare announcement of maintenance...what you think about this?

There are a lot of piece falling into place for the crypto space now, especially on the institutional side, but the Tether situation is still hanging over the market. Tether has double the daily volume of ETH, which is absolutely crazy:

volume.png

How the US has allowed Tether to continue to exist for so long is not only baffling, but very worrying. Either they don't care, which I find very unlikely, or they have been thoroughly preparing to take them down all this time.

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Or they can't prove that they are doing anything wrong, which I actually think the fact that they are still operating likely means that many of the boogie man tether stories are likely fictitious. People use Tether as a fiat proxy where there aren't easily accessible fiat on/off ramps.

At worst it sounds like there may be some fractional banking going on with tether, but the tethers seemed to backed by real dollars eventually either way.

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Or they can't prove that they are doing anything wrong, which I actually think the fact that they are still operating likely means that many of the boogie man tether stories are likely fictitious.

If they weren't doing anything wrong, why was Phil Potter claiming that Bitfinex and Tether are completely separate entities, not related to one another? We only found out the linkage after the Paradise Papers were released. That's pretty much when the "FUD" started.

Btw, Potter resigned from his post @ Bitfinex in June.

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Perhaps using a legal or technical definition they are separate entities would be my guess. I am not saying they haven't done anything or aren't, but I am saying that at this point if it was as bad as some seem to think it would have come out for sure by now. They would have hoodwinked a lot of people into buying their tethers, people with a lot of money.

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I feel sorry for guys that hold tether,they will learn very hard lesson in future.

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The fall of Tether would be catastrophic not only for trading but for the market cap overall. I was really scared back then when the first fud rose up.

I hope we have some time if you're right.

I don't believe it will happen this year because of the propped-up dollar and the currency swaps going on with China to help them manipulate their own currency. These are essentially "lock-up" periods that government agree to reserve each other's currencies, thus keeping them propped.

Also, you have to take into account taxes. No one wants to pay taxes on capital gains made this year (if anyone can due to losses) so this is a classic government block so that they can continue to kick the fiat can down the road long enough to brace for mass crypto adoption impact.

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Hahaha

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Ha i love that show!
So funny.

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It is up 15% in the last 2 weeks from the lows, that's not nothing.

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Yep!
Just keep hodling, firm enough!

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LOL

Wow bitcoin is my favourite exchaning like market

Posted using Partiko Android

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What is your least favorite exchange like market?

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Cryptocurrency based market @jrcornel

Posted using Partiko Android

when already bitcoin will grow?

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Soon it will grow, I hope.

Who knows ? But historic stats says anything is possible.

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Yep, it always is.

Big true! You are the best! And I do an Upvote!

bitcoin 100% ba a subir y mas de lo que nosotros pensamos 1)noticia de china fallo 2) noticia de la SEC falla 3)cryptomercado aumenta $12 millones en 60minuto 4) el 15%biene de china 23%eeuu india 5% rusia 7% 51% fuimo no sostro que estamos despertando de la falsa noticia para perjudica bitcoin pasa los $25.000 sin nesecida de las aprovacion de sistema de manipulacion.

Don't think that's gonna happen. The market has matured a lot. Look at it from a 2017's point of view:
If you had had 500 million $ and could have started buying BTC once the futures had been announced, plus get into large short positions with that money, then you'd just dump your BTC, dragging the price down again and making heaps of $ with the futures.

This year, we can hope for the Bakkt futures, but it's questionable whether those can create such a buzz again.

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They may not have to. The next traunch of buyers may be of the institutional variety, via Bakkt.

I like most of your articles, but I can't agree with you that bitcoin or crypto in general is a different market. The technology is different, but eventually it will behave like a "normal" market. It actually behaves the same way as other new technology markets.

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Yes, it most certainly will, but not currently. How many markets can you name out there that are global in nature, are worth $200 billion plus, and for the most part the exchanges are completely unregulated?

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If you look in the past I am sure you can find markets, maybe not as global but certainly unregulated. 200 billion is not large.

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I agree with you that it is not large, but there are not many larger markets that are worth more than $200 billion that are completely unregulated. There are some, but not many.

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The only thing that comes up to my mind are illegal drug markets. I went on a search and found this. Counter fitting 1 trillion, drug trafficing 500 billion.

https://www.talkingdrugs.org/report-global-illegal-drug-trade-valued-at-around-half-a-trillion-dollars

Crypto would be third in the list. Quite amazing.

I'm seeing a lot of people that said Bitcoin would reach $50,000 or higher this year retract those statements. Now it's seeming like even $10,000 would be a pretty good goal to reach for what with a fair number of people still calling for 2 and $3,000.

If we hit 20,000 I will be really happy. Especially if the altcoins follow suit. I hope and wonder if some of the alt coins that have gone to Absolute crap will try to recover some value.

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That may be exactly what we need to see. Once everyone stops being so bullish and starts getting bearish, that is likely precisely when the market starts going up. If everyone is on the same side of trade, there is no one left to push it in that direction. :)

Thank you for your analysis!
I have a similar point of view (not hope) - that BTC price will increase at the end of this year...
Even the expectation is going to have influece, people is going to buy btc or altcoins before November for take advantages (follow last year behaviour). This situation and other factors should have to be considered - Just ideas.
Thank you again
Cheers

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Well analysis is certainly better than hope!

I expect an ATH before the end of the year. It may not last until the wnd of the year but I don't seebthe year end trend changing.

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I could see a scenario where it happens for sure. Perhaps it is already beginning.

Most here on Steemit, the retail buyer, not to mention the average Joe thinking about investing, need some consolation or encouragement, what with the downtrend this year.

@jrcornel they don't know anything about Bitcoin, I'm sad to say, and yet they have invested or want to invest all the same.

They haven't learned to think in terms of crypto as the unit of account, not fiat. (They also think you can predict when moves will happen.) When I look at the price performance of btc, I think about how I can churn more volume trading and build up my savings of coins. (I look at macro trends, daily news, hourly arbitrage opportunities)

And so, with my friendly wager that btc would hit 10k usd by the end of August, your post is no consolation and no encouragement for me. I'm going to be down two coins if there isn't a rapid ascent in the next couple days. And I felt confident back in Spring that August would see a major move. There was but also a reverse.

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I am not sure it can happen by August, but in a few weeks, it could certainly hit. Not sure that helps you all that much though?!

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Right. Unless there're rumors of major mining, application or exchange development, I think I'll have to just wait for the end of year tax bump. Futures SEC approval might finally come then too.

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Bakkt is expected to be up and running by November. Perhaps an ETF approval joins them.

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Buying the expectation

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Sounds cool, thanks!

Well all the hype has been disappeared from the market it might be in the limelight but that bull run to achieve again might be very hard

It could, but if it did I would doubt it would be much more than $20k.

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Remember it moved $15k in a month last year... and there are still 4 months left in the year. It could go a lot higher in theory, though I agree that it is probably not likely to.

Personally I think there's a chance that Bitcoin will reach greater heights this year. It's just my speculation no facts to prove it but I think the big investors are just staying low at the moment and the price will sky rocket when they start to make their move.

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Well you are not alone in that opinion. Many think something similar to last year is on the way.

Great post! i think and i hope that bitcoin can reach a new highs

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If anyone is better at predicting prices than someone else using TA who is also using TA, he just got lucky.

I heard bakkt is also a big thing. What is most important for crypto the cboe etf or bakkt?

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In the short term, a physically backed bitcoin ETF is more important. However, it may take Bakkt being created for an ETF to ultimately be approved, so perhaps we have a "chicken or the egg" kind of thing here?! :)

I think we gona stay a little longer into consolidation, before we make a new high.

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Look @ previous Bubble