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RE: BTC- The yield for buying these 30% dips is roughly 153% profit!
Yes, seems like the reaction to a major move in BTC over a weekend has a pretty disproportionate reaction in GBTC when the market opens. Wouldn't you agree?
I think it depends really. I have seen it play out both ways.
Do you pay attention to the GBTC premium at all? I use this site for current readings:
https://www.neotechdevs.com/gbtc/
I have noticed that when bitcoin goes way up, the price of GBTC often opens "lower" than it "should" based on the previous close and the percentage move in BTC. However, I also feel that on big drops GBTC opens higher than it should based on the same things. Those having to do with changes in the premium.
I guesstimate it here and there for my own edification, but definitely not any sort of detailed analysis. Bookmarked that site. Definitely a handy reference! It would be even better if you could overlay the BTC chart!
So you think that there is an equilibrium in premium that is constantly being sought? On what kind of time frame though? Seems like it has more violent moves on shorter timeframes (retail FUD & FOMO), then it smooths out on longer timeframes (Perhaps because people paying attention to premium are stepping in because they see value in one direction or the other?). The premium has been over 100% historically, so that equilibrium would have to be heavily based on market sentiment.
Correct, no equilibrium, it just kinda does what it does. Ironically though during periods of bullishness the premium tends to increase and during bearishness it tends to decrease, which ironically is contrary to my little weekly open observation I mentioned above. :)