We don't have a larger downtrend yet.
We had heavy dips every end of year since 2015, and we had large downtrends for a few months, following after a short rebound, but this time we may just see a slow and constant rise... in the sense that we smoothen out the really crass volatility because so much new money comes flooding in.
If this came true and there were no crazy rises either, bitcoin would be at a reliable 16.5k around end of February without lots of volatility - just to supply a third scenario between the "all is lost" and the "to the moon" ones.