Bitcoin Update! 02-11-2018 Looking at the Big Picture!
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Sometimes it behooves us to step back and ask the Universe, "Ok bro, what are you telling me?" Yes, I refer to the Universe as bro. God understands the language you naturally speak. I'm reminded that an object in motion tends to stay in motion, and that the energy required to stop an object in motion, let alone reverse it, must be equal to or greater than the object' velocity, accounting for time decay, resistance, and entropy over time. Looking at the Weekly Chart of Bitcoin since it's early days, it's hard to imagine any force that could stop such velocity. I mean, seriously, the crash of 2018? What a joke.
Looking at the daily chart doesn't really tell us much. We seem to have the bottom I called around $6k, and we've been struggling to break through previous levels of support turned resistance ever since. The weekly chart zoomed in still looks bearish, as we've not traded above the 50% line of the previous week's candle. However, as long as we can stay above that $6k range I'll stay positive. We need to break through the current resistance zone between 9100-9500 to put us on track to staying above last week's 50% mark on it's candle. A necessary to be bullish on this recovery. However, it won't be until we trade above this week's candle next week that a bullish scenario is in force. Also, sometimes the trend is your friend. The wide sentiment is that BTC must remain above 10k to be bullish. I think those statements are mired more in personal desire for portfolio growth than accurate TA, but it's close. My personal goal, as stated above, is a steady close above 9500 and I'll feel bullish.
You can see, that I called the long position off the Red 9 on the pseudo-hammer candle. The TD Time Indicator has always helped me time the markets, and in this case it was a godsend.
Ok, I know what you heathens want. You're traders aren't you? You want to know what Bitcoin's going to do in the short-term. Well, here's what it's LIKELY to do.
First off, you can see that using the Time Indicator, using the Red 9 as an entry signal would have netted you an 8% trade, using for an exit signal when a two trades below a one. Secondly, we can see the current resistance areas at 9.4 k and 10k. Based on BTC's cylical movement on the hourly, I expect us to trade around in the current channel (which are good swing trades...setting buy orders for 7.9k and selling at 8.5k...just saying) with current support around 7.9k. I'd like to see a move down as low as 7.7k before re-bounding on volume and breaking up out of the current 8.5k channel. If we break the 7.7k level a quick exit until 7.1k would be timely, however just keep your eyes peeled because if 7.1 doesn't hold we could see a retreat back to 6k.
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We could be range bound for a good time while fundamentals sort themselves out. I don't think we have lots of buyers or sellers until the market gets more clarity on regulation at least. There is a ton of institutional money on the sidelines and that will be a catalyst for a new bull run. However, more FUD or bad types of regulation as we could head lower.
That's a good analysis. There are waves of institutional money that are going to be pouring into Bitcoin as we move forward the climb upward is inevitable the only thing that might change is the timing. Thanks for your wonderful comments!
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