Is Bitcoin Ready to Bounce for a Healthy Profit Opportunity?
In this post of mine I explained how I thought bitcoin was due for a correction to the 200 day "simple moving average" (200 DSMA) and I also briefly mentioned how bump and run patterns generally play out.
Well...
as you can see, price is just now testing the first "bump" (trendline before the steeper trendline, or "run", formed). This is a high probability area for a correction to the upside, but, as with all technical analysis indicators, it's no guarantee.
I can say with a fair amount of confidence, based on past experience observing these types of scenarios and trading them, that it's not a very good sign for the bulls if we don't get at least some type of bounce from this trendline, as this would signal that the selling pressure is above average for this type of bump and run test.
If this trendline should fail to continue the bullish move...
the next stop is the 200 DSMA (pink line on the chart), which is where I've been expecting price to test since that post I made 21 days ago.
Will it happen?
I can't be sure, but, being that it's so close to price right now and keeping in mind the fact that price hasn't tested the 200 DSMA since August 2, 2016 (!), I'm leaning in favor of it happening, and likely happening within the next few weeks, maybe even in the course of the next few days.
THIS IS NOT TRADING ADVICE!
I don't consider myself an "expert" at technical analysis, nor should you. I share only my opinion of how I think this market will play out.
I would like to remind you that you're (presumably) an adult - and (if it's the case that you're an adult) that makes YOU SOLELY responsible for your decisions, trading and investments are no exceptions!!!
More important than any of this stuff about where the market is going or what ways you can multiply your wealth is your own spiritual development as a human. If you place responsibility for any of your decisions on anyone other than yourself, if you place the highest authority with anyone other than yourself (as an adult), you're going to suffer more than you ever could from a poor investment decision. Trust me on this one.
Do yourself a favor and don't play victim.
seems like its under 8K level now will it go further down james
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Anything is possible, but it's a good sign for anyone holding bitcoin that the price went up so much, and so quickly, off of the 200 DSMA test (the 200 DSMA is the pink line on the chart above - the thing that I've been expecting to happen soon).
It's hard to be sure how this will play out but it becomes easier and easier to get an idea as to what is more likely (price move up or down?) after we get a few more days of price action (candles on the chart).
But, like I said, it's always a good first sign that price is about to move back up when you get this kind of a bounce off of a TA indicator (or overlay) like the 200 DSMA.
That was an accidental 100% upvote, but I'll leave it since it exhausts that voting power whether I take it back or not.
...so, happy birthday, I guess :)
For some reason I have a hunch that the 200 Day will be in play before long! RSI is getting to a buy range though!
Yeah. A lot of signs that bitcoin could be getting ready to give us at least a good bounce to the upside, if not continue with the previous long-term trend.
Another tool I like to use is fibonacci retracement. Going from the lowest low after the Mount Gox hack bubble burst and the highest high from that bottom (somewhere in the vicinity of $20K), you can see in the chart below that the 200 DSMA is sitting right at the 61.8% retracement level. There also happens to be some "structural" (horizontal) price support at that price (around $7,500).
So there's a "confluence" of support at around that level, which, IMO, is the most ideal.
Bigger Chart
This analysis seems very logical and the charts back it up! Just under $8,000 is going to be a great buying opportunity!
Agree, my man!
Thank you brother for this anfomatoin we need like it ❤
bro i am not very good in analysis but i think your conclusion and TA is very great thanks for sharing
Thanks for the compliment and you're welcome, bro.
after reading this i am very relieved this is great to hold on for long :D
This will likely blow over, just like all the other times that bitcoin had a huge run up and a subsequent large price correction (it went from over $1,100 down to $160 or so after the Mount Gox incident). Nothing has really fundamentally changed with bitcoin to suddenly cause it to go to zero after people have been so high on it up until just a month ago.
This is simply people taking profits leading to a bit of fear selling and compounded a bit by some less than ideal news about USD Tether and some government intervention (talks of upping regulations/ taxes/ etc) in many countries, IMO.
you shared the right analysis i think you did really deep analysis of the situation thanks for sharing it so much @jamesbrown
Thanks @cityslicker :)
You're welcome, man.
Hopefully after all the corrections we should see some better days ahead I just say Hodl and stay calm
The ability to stay calm under these types of conditions is what separates those with a high probability of (financial) success from those who basically have no chance!
Very true
you explain easily a hard thing... i impressed to see your amazing post and excited to see your next post...
Thanks brother for sharing a good information for us..
Hope we get to see something better in the coming time :)