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RE: BITCOIN – Short-Term Update, Bias, & Key Statement for 3-22-2018
Thank you again for the honest, unbiased and professionally made analysis, @passion-ground!
A few traders mentioned they saw a death cross and believe bitcoin will plunge further before the end of March. Have you noticed it as well, and if so, do you think that the death cross would be applicable to bitcoin as it behaves in a very different way compared to stocks, for example? It will be great if you have some time to share your opinion on this matter! Cheers!
@famunger asked the same question a couple of days ago. I answered as follows: Yes, the "death-cross" means something only because so many people pay attention to it, however, given that very fact, such widely broadcast "crosses" can often be head-fakes for the masses who follow them. That's how I've found such well-advertised signals to react in the legacy markets, however, it may be different with BTC... We'll just have to wait and see...
I've always preferred coming up with my own custom "cross-pairs" kind of like I did with my long-term weekly chart for BTC. After endless tinkering with various settings, I look back at the entire data series to see how my "custom cross pair" held up throughout various market cycles. If it shows at least a 60% win rate with greater than a 2:1 or 3:1 win/loss ratio, I know I'm onto something.
Tweaking the crosses in this fashion is a lot more work, and putting in the time to do so typically far outperforms the conventional crosses when comparing efficacies. Hope that helped some... Thanks again for the comment and question.
Thank you for your reply and elaborating more on your opinion about the death cross- it helps a lot!
It might sound like a blasphemy, but sometimes I wonder whether the same thing does not apply to TA in general - does it work mainly because there are enough people who believe the price will follow some direction? Kind of a ''self-fulfilling prophecy''..Right, or not, I do think TA helps when trying to predict the price. Thanks again!
To a much smaller extent, yes - I suppose, however, how many people are aware "Elliott Wave" or Tom DeMarks sequential indicator? Not many I suspect. Therefore, unless it's something widely publicized by the mainstream - all the nuances of various TA practices stand on their own merit and capability of those who can properly read the said tea leaves and adjust accordingly.