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RE: Bitcoin $17,000 Target Update & SegWit2x Returns
Great video as usual. Long-term viewer here. Since you seem to be active here, let me ask you here.
I have been playing with Elliot waves recently, and found them to have a decent predicative power in trending crypto markets. After doing some analysis on the post-September run-up of BTC, I found that this could be part of an ABC retracement that goes all the way down to 8000$. From the technical perspective, there is nothing that precludes BTC from going further down (the indicators seem prime for a lower move, too).
This is my "no panic" level. Lower than that, and I would start fidgeting. What are your thoughts on that?
Elliott Waves predict human market trading psychology.
Obviously, nobody is interested in bitcoin going down and expiring, bulls turn bears just to sell high then buy at a low price and drive it up again. It makes no psychological sense that bitcoin would be going down below 15k now - or if then only very briefly before shooting up again. It was nice to go down to 11 from 19 but right now ? I mean I don't care, I'm more of a day trader with every new day... but it's generally easier to trade an uptrending market, so everybody is interested in bitcoin moving steadily up so they can play their games.
Update - well once again, the weak hands have all decided to bugger off again, and so I hope bitcoin will fall to 4000 before more serious people come back from holiday ;)
I saw a transaction average of $1100 today, so this is what we have, millions of small investors who will run a the first flea bite. This means what with Wall Street joining in next yea, volatility will be INCREDIBLE, and losses of small investors magnificent, hodling through may become a dangerous tactic if not sustainable over at least 3 months or so, with the possibility of success reserved for those who can spend 18 hours online on a regular basis. I'm game.
I don't use Elliot Wave analysis, so I don't have much to offer you other than to say $8,000 was the same level I came up with, just different means, in terms of being the lowest I'd be comfortable with.