The Battle of Bitcoin

 1W

It is best to begin with the big picture in mind and then work our way down to three day, then daily and four-hour views of the charts. You will notice that the chart and the value of the indicators change as we move from a weekly to a daily and then a 4H chart. This is a normal part of the technical analysis.

Let's start with the long term view of the Bitcoin price. In January, we fell into a bear market as the RSI has been overbought. The price fell through the rising trend line (20-Week EMA) and the basic MACD trading rule is to sell when the "slow line" of the MACD falls below the faster 9-Week EMA line (known as a "bearish crossover"). This is consistent with the fundamentals of a weakening trend, and a recession. It is best to remain nimble during times like this.

In late January support at 11800 and 12770 failed, as well as a few days ago the price has failed to break through the resistance at 11800, indicating further weakness was ahead. RSI above 50 indicates an uptrend, though it is close to breaking up through 50. So far, the the 20-Week EMA is the primary resistance for this bear market.

The MACD is trending down, as well it isn't at a low point and it normally continue falls down. When the MACD line rises through the 9-week moving average, we will have a buy sign. Long term the trend is still down, but we are likely to see consolidation at the next level and possibly a rally down to the support at the 4k area.

3Day

The three-day chart shows more closely the transition from a bull to a bear market. So far, the descending trend line is the primary resistance for this bear market, very soon we will see the new resistance from 50-Day EMA.

RSI below 50 indicates a downtrend. MACD is below zero line, indicating the strong downtrend. When it rises through the 9-Day moving average and the centerline, we will have a GREEN FLAG, to re-buy bitcoin again.

By the way, I expect the price will execute the first death cross when the 20-Day EMA falls down through the 50-Day EMA support line, this is again a sell sign.

The support from the 50-Day EMA is so weak, that I think it can be breached very fast.

1Day

In the daily chart a horizontal channel is forming with support at 8k and resistance at 11k. This is a good sign that the market is forming a support base from which it can bounce out. However, it can also fall further.

RSI is below 50 indicating a downtrend, though it is close to falling down below 50 level. The MACD rose up through the 9-Day moving average, a buy sign, but don't worry, it's a bull trap because the MACD is below centerline. The indicators are giving a sell sign, indicating a downtrend is likely will continue.

Look for a break through the 12k level as a sign the Bitcoin price will go higher. If that happens it would indicate a new rally is underway.

Right now the 100-Day and 50-Day exponential moving averages provide significant resistance.

4Hour

Bitcoin price broke through support from 20-Hour and 50-Hour EMA and continues to fall.

RSI is below 50 indicating a downtrend. The MACD turned down through the nine-day moving average and the centerline, a sell sign.

The break down through the EMA is a sign of further weakness in the market. Moreover, the pattern gives us a target of 8k. This does not mean the price will fall there in a straight line. Rather, we could see a rebound at the 9k level, possibly back to 9.8k, before the price turns down again.

Conclusion. Wait for the dip. Re-buy when you will have a buy sign from the RSI, MACD and EMA on the 3-Day time frame.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/mE7Dyrb1-The-Battle-of-Bitcoin/ 

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