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RE: The Big Long – Contrary to Popular Belief, Digital Assets do have Cash Flows – 02/28/18

in #bitcoin6 years ago

Interesting read. I think he discounts the synergistic nature of these chains. Many dapps, and especially future dapps will depend on each other to function in numerous circumstances. Decentralized exchange will be a biggie and market participants will flock to the dex with the most volume, just as they do with centralized exchanges. This dex will operate on one chain. Users won't magically flock to another chain just because of lower fees. If POS chains created perfect competition because of their open-source nature and forking, then ethereum classic would have near the same adoption rate as ethereum. It doesn't.

I think we will see a pareto distribution with respect to blockchains. One chain will garner roughly 80% of market share, while the remainder will total about 20%. Bitcoin had 80%+ of market share until about a year ago and then experienced a collapse in market share to well below 50%, which I predicted well in advance. This is why I think bitcoin will ultimately loose. It has already started down that slippery slope. Bitcoin wastes too much energy. At his valuation range, bitcoin would consume roughly 10% of global energy usage, give or take. I just don't think it is sustainable. Also, bitcoin has pretty much solidified its transaction rates at max 10-12 txs/sec. I don't think this is enough for even a digital gold. However, I do agree that we will see a dominant 'store of value' coin, but I don't think it will be bitcoin. I could be wrong about that. His arguments for a decoupling of utility from 'store of value' make sense.

If he is right about utility chains tending towards a zero-fee model, then I think EOS is the likely candidate because it started out of the gate with no fees. I don't think that will work long term either. There are real and significant costs to redundantly processing and replicating data over many machines and storing copies of that data on many machines essentially forever. This cost has to be borne by someone. If users don't pay for it, then investors will and I don't see investors buying into that model for long. There are edge cases where indirect revenue streams can flow to investors in that model, but it may not be enough to sustain the system. Ultimately, I think a POS system with a fee market will prevail. We will see how this plays out.

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