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RE: Predictions : What to expect post-SegWit Activation
You seem like a level headed person in the crypto-space. Really enjoyed the article, and I'll definitely be looking forward to lower fees! lol.
I feel like BCH is a short term fix, and is vulnerable. Thinking about writing on article on that too. Anyways, followed and upvoted!
I actually like BCH in the longer run because I'm not really convinced about Lightning Network and I think the small blocks wont be able to handle the future demand. Followed you back and I look forward to reading your article. Thanks for the upvote and the randowhale too!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=2941&v=iFJ2MZ3KciQ
Check out this video, some good points made here about BCH. I'll be referencing this in my article probably lol
Interesting video though I am a bit wary of some vested interests there. eg, the guy with the UASF hat on is clearly a Bitcoin Core fan and others were spewing some very anti-miner rhetoric. I'm not a Bitcoin absolutionist so I'm not looking for the silver bullet and I'd like to see many different blockchains together adding up to compete with VISA in the long run, but for now it's just about staying ahead of the demand curve. Let competing innovation thrive as the space evolves and let the market decide :)
I have no doubt Bitcoin will become obsolete. I've always considered it to end up being the new gold standard. Just a store of wealth. The value of Bitcoin is only going to rise. I do like the competition though!
I agree with your assessment. Good post.
You may appreciate my post entitled "SegWit is a Trojan Horse".
That's a really good article and I agree with a lot of it. Here I was just trying to quantify the short term effects (and sentiment) we might see from segwit activation while staying out of the political/technical arguments for/against it. But I'm aware there are some big issues!
I have to remind myself that the market doesn't always care about these kind of fundamentals, and even when it does, it's always late to the party. Your analysis is probably more immediately contemporary.
PS - Followed you btw, solid comments.
So true. Markets can have a very short term view as participants chase the quick buck. Lot of that going on in the crypto space at the moment and a LOT of totally uninformed speculators who think they can just read a chart and ignore the driving fundamentals (it does my head in!).
Segwit will be GREAT.....until it isn't. Whether it's the miners conspiring to make an unverified transaction, failure of the Lightning Network or failure to scale properly, the realisation will come at some point and that realisation may even be the sort of black swan to cause a Mt Gox type market event.
But, lets hope for the best and plan for the worst. There is no perfect solution so the game is more about lesser evils and identifying and mitigating their risks than anything else.
You said it. I didn't used to feel uncomfortable holding Bitcoin as the denominator for all my trades, but I'm diversifying more these days.
It's hard not to when it is basically THE crypto used in all the alt coin trading pairs. That might change when SegWit2x forks, but we will need new trading pair options that don't involve BTC soon.
I wonder what that will end up being, Bitcoin cash or Eth I guess.