Bitcoin Segwit 2x Fork Speculations and Tin Foil Hat Theories.
This article summarises the current theories of what will happen after the Bitcoin Segwit 2x fork from the most likely and sensible outcomes to currently circulating conspiracy theories. Facts regarding the coming fork (somewhere around the 16th of November) are nicely summarized by the tenmillionsterling , therefore they are not repeated in this article as this is a summary of potential ‘What will happen to the price and bitcoin?’ OPINIONS and by no means it’s a financial advice. For the readers who don’t know what is the coming fork, please follow this link.
I would like to stress out one more time that this article is a collection of opinions based on facts, feelings, bias, and pure human idiocy so please use your own critical thinking in making life decisions.
Current Bitcoin (core) is called 1x or core.
The updated/forked (Segwit2x)is referred as 2x or B2X.
Alts – alternative crypto currencies also widely known as shitcoins.
Theory number 1. No split occurs and life goes on.
Probably the best outcome (not necessarily the most likely) is to avoid the blockchain split altogether. In this scenario all miners update the protocol to Segwit2x (or abandon 2x) and Bitcoin does not split. Therefore, the second chain does not occur and Segwit2x protocol gets successfully activated. As a result, there is only one Bitcoin (2X or 1X) and every exchange calls 2x (or 1X) as a Bitcoin, there is no network disruption, no double spending. In this scenario Bitcoin price should continue its uprising trend and altcoins would continue to be suppressed.
The likelihood of every miner achieving consensus is moderate. Currently 83% of miners signal for 2x and 33.2 percent signal for 1x coin (reference). It is possible for no split to occur, although I think, there is going to be a split.
Theory number 2. Bitcoin splits into 2 coins (1x and 2x).
Bitcoin core developers are unlikely to give in and split occurs. Peter Todd (core developer) said Segwit2x is a fraud. As a result all hell breaks loose, a disaster, since there is no replay protection and no consensus of what will be called Bitcoin. Opinion alert! In my humble opinion this is the most likely scenario.
First of all, there are no consensus among exchanges and various service providers of what is going to be Bitcoin and what is going to be called B2X as each company want to call Bitcoin with their own names. Table 1 shows summary of what each coin after split is being called, taking into the consideration that B2X will have the most hash.
Table 1 shows the decision of crypto service providers regarding the naming of split coins.
*Bitcoin is going to be called a chain with the majority of hash power and only 1 coin listed. In case B2X is called Bitcoin, it is not clear how the original coin is going to be named.
**Opinion alert! I think they name Bitcoin with the most hash power.
- Peter Todd calling Segwit2x a fraud
As the table 1 indicates, there is no consensus of what is going to be Bitcoin, the lack of replay protection specifies that spending Bitcoin you will also spend the B2X and vice versa. It will cause madness. For example, if you spend Bitcoin to pay for the game on Steam which effectively will name B2X (Bitpay) as Bitcoin, your money may be lost or transferring BTC from one exchange to the other when the same name Bitcoin is used while indicating 2 different chains! On the other hand, a lot of miners may switch back to support the 1x chain (or they may not).
Opinion alert!!! What does this mean and what to do? In this scenario until the consensus is reached (and it will be reached), price of 1x and 2x plummets, while money flows back to dirty, disgusting, filthy fiat and glorious alternative crypto currencies. All major alts should experience the price boom against the Bitcoin and depending how low the Bitcoin drops, possibly against the fiat. I think DASH, LTC, ETH, NEO will be the major gainers. I deliberately left BCH out of this.
Depending to the miners support, original Bitcoin will become vulnerable to the double spending attack. High difficulty and low mining profitability may lead to the remaining miners to switch to the most profitable coin (BCH or B2X), in fact potentially exposing 1x and 2x chains to double spending attacks (probably unlikely scenario). All depends on how fast the emergency protocol is released to adjust the difficulty for the Bitcoin Core (1x) chain to avoid exodus of the miners. In case of the double spending attack 1X would loose all the confidence, generally would die. However, the emergency protocol may be released quickly, difficulty adjusted really fast and enough of miners will remain mining 1X to prevent any potential attacks. The uncertainty about the support for each chain (1x or 2x), lack of consensus of what is what, logically should cause the BTC price to drop. However, this is crypto, logic does not work all the time, why else bitconnect exist?
This leads us to the conspiracy. AND WE ALL LOVE CONSPIRACY, JET FUEL CANT MELT STEEL !
For the following theories please put your tin foil hats.
Theory number 3. Destruction of Bitcoin and rise of B2X. Overtake by the bankers.
Split occurs and majority of the hash power supports B2X. The 1x chain becomes laggy and slow, and hence experience the dump by people and groups interested in killing core. The large sums of 1x gets dumped while B2X is being equivalently bought while cheap. All big holders (hedge funds, whales, bankers buy a large sums of B2X while the price is low) and increase the total Bitcoin stake (2X), rich get richer and now have the absolutely majority of the coins hence can do various price manipulations and steer the direction of the Bitcoin.
This theory is provided by the poorbrokebastard.
This article about Segwit2x and its threat.
And here the most highly controlled Brokerage service Coinbase says that Bitcoin Core are the biggest threat.While Coinbase itself may freeze your account at any time due to any reason they want (bitcoin you own previously was used in a gambling or any other activity they don’t like), Coinbase is happy to hand all the customer info to the government at any time and yet still, they see volunteer developers as a threat.
Theory number 4. BCH becomes Bitcoin as Jihan Wu will take over the world!
The lack of reply protection and deliberate attack on 1x chain by the major hashing power would lead to the loss of confidence in 1x and 2x chains. Price would plummet of 1x and 2x coins, while at the same time BCH would be pumped leading to the miners and herd of people flocking to the BCH. Jihan Wu and Roger Ver with the power of lobbying persuade business to call BCH as Bitcoin. We need very thick hat to understand this!
Bitcoin cannot be destroyed, however it can be changed. Hundreds of millions have been invested in Bitcoin mining operations. Hence Bitcoin will prevail, however it may be core,B2X or BCH. As noted by the tenmillionsterrling, it is possible for the BCH to overtake Bitcoin name in the case of 1x and 2x destruction. That does not mean that people will start using BCH over the much better alternative crypto currencies. I would like to add to the tenmillionsterrling comment, in support of the BCH take over. Jihan Wu and Bitmain is the major supplier of BTC miners, they only accept BCH as a payment option, and hence have enough power and influence to blackmail the community and stir the Bitcoin future to their own benefit. Jihan Wu is very smart and he rightly deserves applause for being the best in the mining business. I don’t believe in this theory at all and don’t want to support the BCH, although BCH may increase in price significantly.
Other theories will be added later as they appear. Please share and I will add them giving you credit.
Summary. OPINION ALERT.
The most likely scenario is that split occurs. Exchanges will disable BTC deposits and Withdrawals 24 hours before the fork and will enable only when its save. Various service providers such as Bitpay (that supports major businesses as Steam) will suspend the service. Therefore BTC price should drop as people will still need to perform transactions. Consequently, the transactions will be performed using altcoins. The biggest gainer is LTC as this coin is universally accepted by every exchange and is frequently used to transfer BTC from one exchange to the other due to smaller fees and shorter block generation time. However, second contender is DASH and several businesses already accept DASH over Bitcoin (BitCart – save on your amazon vouchers), or via the use ShapeShift integration as popular amazon discount provider states that DASH is the most popular altcoin used on the site.
Which coin will prevail (1x or 2x) as Bitcoin, I don’t know, but tend to think it will be B2X as currently it has the majority hash supply. Secondly, the massive split in the hash power would lead to Bitcoin core being vulnerable to the double spend attack at any point and lead to the loss of confidence, hence disappearance. However, anything is possible and it all depends on the intentions of the participating groups. Are all the miners evil and mine what is the most profitable disregarding the technology? Have the core developers ditched the vision of Satoshi and are closed to the public opinion? Does Jihan Wu seek to replace Bitcoin with BCH? Do the bankers and governments want to control the Bitcoin or perhaps even destroy it? There are plenty of arguments for and against, while answer to each question directly correlates to the quality of foil used to make the hat.
But hey– money talks. As much as I would like to see the decentralization the trend is set not by the early and crazy libertarian adopters, but by the herd of newcomers, who don’t really care about escaping the system. How can unpaid volunteers (Bitcoin core) compete with billionaires such as Jihan Wu? Masses and Bankers seek stability which is in their opinion only achieved by the regulations and control. It is possible for B2X take over the core, also possible for Bitcoin Core (1x) to prevail and B2X being listed as an altcoin. The month after the fork (in case of the split) will be turbulent, and as I expressed earlier, its probably best to stay out of bitcoin and keep fiat or alts (again OPINION so you are free not to listen at all and do whatever the hell your heart desires).
NOTE: I generally don’t like the control and centralization, monopoly. Otherwise I would stick with the fiat and would lead the life of a slave, take a mortgage, and would demand Bitcoin to be banned or at least regulated by the government. Maybe also become a communist too or at least highly aggressive socialist and a vegan.
If you are looking for the more serious predictions, please read these articles 1 2.
Disclaimer. I don’t own any LTC, well I do, but cant remember the password I set 4 years ago, and 200 LTCs are locked forever. Perhaps someone knows how I could reach into my consciousness and help remember it? Also, I don’t like BCH, I don’t use it, I hate it. I did my best to make this article entertaining and informing at the same time. The tinfoil hat theories, well you need a hat to understand them.For the more comprehensive theories you should read Jimmy Song and other highly influential people.
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