My prediction on Bitcoin
Good morning Everyone, I wanted to try something different today. Lately I've been getting interested in Tech Analisys and I figured why not put something up with my thoughts and opinions and see if anyone agrees, or if they disagree let me know why I may be wrong.
So I'm looking for the new buy in point for Bitcoin, anyone that buys in now are just crazy, there are fluctuations that can be taken advantage of, but the question is how low to set that BUY order to reap the most profits.
Personally I like working with Bollinger Bands and the Fibonacci Retracements. The below image shows the current Bollinger bands for BTC/USD using the 1day charts. To come back to the Mid Range it needs to pull back to about $8200, but if the dip starts and then people start panic selling it could theoretically go right back down to about $6000.
But if we look at a series of previous retracements to see how far each pull back in Percentages generally is, we can see the following.
This is the first big run from May to when it pulled back in Mid Sept. That was about 50% from its then All Time High
Then from that pull back to the High point of around $7500 it again pulled back about 50%
So if we look at the point from that previous pull back to the current ATH of over $11,000 and again assume it'll pull back 50% from there, we should look at a buy in point of about $8300, setting your buy much lower will probably result in you missing out.
So thats my thoughts, and my reasoning behind it. I'd love to hear what you think, agree or disagree.
Tether is the big unknown. If there’s not enough money backing each Tether and a downward spiral starts it could be hard to pull out. If this happens we might go below 5k even. If Tether proves to be legit then we’re going to 20k soon!
I'd hazard a guess to say there isn't enough real USD behind Tether, but their isn't enough gold or government behind the real USD so which is worse.
I also think the parabolic rise we keep seeing will have the next major pump hit about $18.4K
I think it only takes one significant failure and we could be in real trouble. In my book it could be Tether/Bitfinex (worth atleast $761 million) or BitConnect (worth $891 million) if they go down then it will smash sentiment badly. It is possible that the first actually causes the 2nd to go down like a domino.
Thats the things, there's going to be a failure, somewhere with something. Crypto's fail every week, just none of the big ones yet.
I would almost put money on Bitconnect disappearing very rapidly. It just screams scam.
Tether I think will stay around, people don't hold it to gain value, it should be seen as low risk. I like it as its cheaper and quicker to trade with than BTC, and its cleaner on my spreadsheets in terms of fiat value.
I do agree and have used Tether quite a lot. But Tethers recent hack and drama plus the Steem Dollars going through the roof soon after has me a bit spooked. If done properly Tether is a great concept and immensely valuable to the alt-coin trading ecosystem but the current implementation of Tether looks shadier every time I look at it.
All money is essentially worthless even gold isn’t exactly a necessity. The USD is based on the U.S. government staying solvent, and at the minute btc is based on a few rocky corporation like entities. Hopefully everything will get worked out before a crash.
Good point! I agree with you!
I have no idea, but I like it that you are giving this a go!
Totally agree with your thoughts. Everything which rises has to fall to climb back again. I too booked some profits around 10000 levels and hope to buy them back around 8500 levels.
Regards Nainaz
#thealliance
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