How the value of a Bitcoin forms and will it reach 100.000€ till 2030?
This article deals of the question as the value of a Bitcoin forms.
And I admit for some aspects not to know exactly the facts. For suggestions I am open with pleasure.
Mining
At the beginning there ist he mining. The Expenses are: Hardware + electricity.
Towards him stands the yield which is directed after the current exchange rate for a Bitcoin.
The basic principle is: the higher the value of a Bitcoins, the more people become miner by which the yield sinks for the same expenses again. The system is selflimitative!
It is very difficult to find concrete figures about the mining costs per Bitcoin. I am very grateful for further information about it.
Pure speculation is the following curve for the cost development:
Trading
Trading ist he the principle of offer and demand. The current Bitcoin-value is very simply to be found at every Bitcoin stock exchange.
It is of course more difficult to do the forecast. My assumption is based on:
http://t3n.de/news/analyst-bitcoin-dollar-wert-827441/
summary: Till 2030 approx. 10% (500 billion $) by the worldwide everyday commercial tra-ding volume will be moved in crypto currencies , of it about 35% in Bitcoin, so 175 billion $. With approx. 17 million Bitcoins at this time this means an value of about 100.000€ per Bitcoin in 2030.
Trust
Whether Bitcoin really asserts itself in the market depends on how much trust to this new digital currency will be brought.
What seems to be at first sight a disadvantage, however, could turn out as well an advantage. With Bitcoin there is as opposed to national currencies no central bank which guarantees more or less the equivalent of the respective money. Earlier the national central banks for every printed bank note had to put back an equivalent in gold as a guarrantee.
Compare: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton-Woods-System
Since about 1970 the ECB and the US central bank FED can print money (fiat-money) without depositing any values for it. (The stock exchanges work the way along from one crisis to the next about the decades while the profits will be privatised and the losses the society get charged.)
Bitcoins are limited at 21 Million, there won´t any more in the future. Why should the trust be higher in this central bank system as in the new Blockchain technology?
Often enough the citizens already have become disappointed bitterly from her central banks or states, as some random examples shall show:
Argentina – several state bankruptcies in last decades
http://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/Argentiniens-lange-Pleitengeschichte-article13346321.html
Venezuela – dictator loco
Greece – halved pensions during the last years.
These lists can be still extended certainly.
http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/weltkarte-der-staatsinsolvenzen-diese-laender-waren-schon-mal-pleite-a-813253.html
How many states or governments are heavily indebted?
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_der_L%C3%A4nder_nach_Staatsschuldenquote
For many decades the US-dollar ist he leading currency worldwide. Now they have a strange president for one year (and how many more?). Do you trust him? What do you think if other people trust him und his government?
Hence, I can imagine very well that Bitcoin will be the first virtual world reserve currency!
See the intersting article oft he „Deutsche Bank“ to this topic:
https://www.welt.de/finanzen/article170452314/Horrorszenario-fuer-deutsche-Sparer.html
Forecast
Topically the run on Bitcoin is just starting. The topic reaches more and more the wide public. It´s modern gold digging. Who is part of the first discoverers, the earlier the better. The later the entrance the lower is the multiplication rate of winning.
And so Bitcoin exchange rate will rise very strongly during the next years to approach then flattening the 100.000€ range and even exceed this possibly – lets go :-)
Curve expected movement of future Bitcoin value development:
Could there be at the end such an development?
