What If?

First, some preamble:

• Please remember I'm still new to TA (6 months experience max)
• I've been wrong multiple times
• This is a wild speculative guess
• I hope I'm wrong
• I'm not trying to induce FUD (I hate FUD, hate it!), and
• I'm almost scared to post this for the reason above!

With all that said, I've been looking at the monthly chart and I'm wondering...

Is A Major Correction Just Starting?

I normally chart on the 4 hour, daily, and weekly charts, often forgetting to look at the monthly chart (I don't see too many other people using them either). So I decided to take another look at that today to see what I could spot.

(if anything).

Here' what I came up with:

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https://www.tradingview.com/x/Gt2O4XK3/

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This is using a monthly Bittrex chart (the data only goes back to 2011), so maybe there's something vital missing? If not, could we have just completed a larger "wave 3" in a set of 5 Elliott Waves?

I'm becoming a little skeptical of Elliott Wave theory myself, counting backwards isn't a very good indication of what will come next in my opinion. But could we be on a wave 4 at the moment? If so, that chart looks pretty bullish long-term to me!

Elliotticians please feel free to counter my newbish-ness here!

"EWT" aside, the MACD here still scares the crap out of me. I've seen how good an indicator the MACD can be on shorter time frames, which is why I always use it, here are just a couple of examples:

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Daily BTC/USD Chart
Price: $17,950

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Weekly BTC/USD Chart
Price $11.989

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The daily chart gave a great sell signal, and the weekly one wasn't too bad either considering we're now at about $9,300 as I type. But what about here?

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Monthly BTC/USD Chart

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If the MACD is still overbought/stretched on the monthly chart, will there not be a sell signal at some point here too?

Not Trying To Spread FUD...

That's what has me worried, but I said already I don't want to spread FUD, So I'm wondering if any of the more experienced TAs have any thoughts on this? Could we see the MACD dip, but the price remain fairly stable? Or could it mean there is more correcting on the way?

I'd love to hear any thoughts on that! So please feel free to drop me a comment.

Thanks for viewing!

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Want more technical analysis and crypto related posts? See also: @toofasteddie, @gazur, @ew-and-patterns, @pawsdog, @cryptomagic, @exxodus, @beiker, @lordoftruth, @masterthematrix, @cryptoheads, @tombort, @maarnio, @steemaze & @briggsy

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Not intended as investment, financial, or trading advice. For entertainment purposes only.

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P.S. I'm still long term bullish on Bitcoin and a lot of other projects in this space. Even a mega crash wouldn't change that!