Bitcoin Continues To Slide - I Think The End Is Near!
Bitcoin - The End Is Near!
The end of the correction I mean... (Trying my hand at clickbait, sorry!)
@briggsy mentioned yesterday that I should take another look at the daily chart. (See why here), so I've decided I would do exactly that today.
Here's what I've got:
In the chart above, I was trying to find out if there was anything that stood out as "odd" about the trend we saw in Bitcoin's rally, and the subsequent correction we are currently experiencing.
The only thing of note here is that the trend line is a little steep - at around 60 degrees - meaning the corrective period will generally last longer, and it already has.
So nothing too unusual there, but it could be an indicator that the corrective period is close to the end, since it has lasted longer than the rally.
Next, I tried an Elliott Wave count:
My EWT analysis has seen very mixed results and I'm still figuring it out, so this count could be totally false. But if it's right? Then we could be on the last leg down right now.
Corrections typically have 2 characteristics:
- They follow a larger "ABC" pattern. (The red circled ABC)
- The larger ABC is usually comprised of a smaller 3-5-3 formation.
I've used "ABC" and "ABCDE" above for the 3-5-3 pattern, but if they're counted correctly; it looks to my novice eyes like the end of the corrective cycle should approaching.
I'd appreciate any input from the experienced EW guys here massively!
What Else?
Aside from the FUD, which always seems to help a correction come about, both the RSI and MACD were giving overbought readings before the correction begun.
Both of these overbought reading are now cleared on the daily chart:
Summary
To put it all together, I don't think we're finished correcting yet, but the signs are looking as if we could be getting towards the end of the phase.
A re-test of the $9500-ish level, or maybe even a drop further could still happen, but the signs appear to be pointing to an end for the Bitcoin correction.
Any thoughts, ideas, help? Or interesting predictions I should look at? Drop them all below!
Thanks for viewing!
For more great technical analysis and crypto related posts, see also: @toofasteddie, @gazur, @ew-and-patterns, @pawsdog, @cryptomagic, @exxodus, @beiker, @allthereisislove, @lordoftruth, @masterthematrix, @cryptoheads, @tombort, @maarnio, @steemaze & @briggsy
Not investment, finance or trading advice.
I'm still missing a volume spike and a lower low as well. Some sort of panic peak should come along with the bottom. I still think BTC will go down to approx. 7600,- USD.
I forgot to mention volume! Yeah we definitely need more volume for any turnaround @masterthematrix. It looks a little higher today which could be a good sign.
These are the support levels I'm seeing clearest on a Coinbase chart:
I've got one at about $7500 in there too, so maybe that could happen. I'm half-expecting a lower low too, that's why the "(C)" is where it is. :-D
But we shall see!
"The end is near!" could also interpreted otherwise ;) Let´s hope for a positive turnaround for all the altcoins, that don´t deserve to be dragged down by the damn BTC!
;-)
Yep let's hope so! It seems a lot of coins are going up at the moment, so we'll see what happens.
Reversal should be coming by mid February
I think it might be sooner, but we'll see! :-)
Great article!
I hope the market re-corrects soon, so that people don't lose faith in the market...
Thanks very much @naumanwali!
The non-optimistic end is here would be the drop down to 5598 support. That would really push the reset button on BTC and let it grow more sustainably.
A full retracement? That'd be something @fow!
We'll see how things shape up. :-)
thanks for sharing