Here's a prediction 🤔 for what the recovery and trend line of Bitcoin may look like:

What do I base that on?

scroll slowly

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Those lines are actually a snapshot of 2013-2016:

zing, got 'em 🤠

(that's denominated in millibits; so where you see '1.355', is simply Bitcoin making its all-time high at $1,355)

Previously there was another version of the same thing, between 2010-2013.

And arguably a mini one along the way (it's that blip you see around 2012). But in retrospect it was probably just a brief reaction to the Cyprus banking type of worries, and should be folded into the 2013 spike, in terms of reading the pattern.

And then fast forward to now:

And adjusting for more years on the chart and how the visualization changes, it looks pretty exactly the same to me.

[Difference being that in the chart above, you can't go back in time and buy it during the valley. But in this chart you can.]

Or in other words:

Now, I make no claims that we've reached the bottom.

Could easily drop in half if not more from here (and I'd tend to guess probably will do something like that).

It's like pushing down on a coil. It always probably will go lower, but then eventually it doesn't. And if you wait too long then it's too late.

So my claim is essentially that if you buy it now (or better yet, average in over 2019), you'll be happy you did in 5 years.

Is Bitcoin DEFINITELY gonna shoot its load again?

Nothing is definite.

Maybe it's an illuminati booby trap with some kind of back door glitch that hasn't been discovered yet.

Maybe we switch to a different internet and thus we need a different token and Bitcoin is only useful on this retro internet.

But what's clear is that Bitcoin's fall from $20K to where it is now should be regarded as another day in the life and the normal course of things (rather than an "omgg, how would anyone make sense of this!?!?" sort of thing).

And thus -- when you recognize that this is as ordinary as apple pie -- that getting on board now is probably a tremendous opportunity that you shouldn't second guess too hard.

Bitcoin's price chart actually seems remarkably calm to me

It has a rhyme and wonder to it that knee jerk analysts and wannabe economists totally miss.

It doesn't have to continue in this exact same way forever -- and it certainly won't. In my mind it will be like an 'S' shape, and somewhere along the way when Bitcoin is more ubiquitous, it becomes kind of the opposite, where the drops are sudden and the recovery is more gradual. Until finally volatility becomes less and less of a thing.

But anyways:

If you go from newly discovered to ubiquitously used over, say, 100 years, then that's a pretty wild thing and the price pattern certainly won't be a perfectly straight line.

Not with human psychology involved.

A series of blip/drop, blip/drop hiccups is more what you should expect.

So its price behavior so far seems totally in line with the idea that Bitcoin is a groundbreaking mathematical discovery that will serve as the backbone of how value transfer works.

If it's going to be big, it wouldn't be some kind of neat and uneventful rise.

So where many see chaos and dissonance, there comes a point where they should be seeing ever increasing confirmation that Bitcoin is a big deal and fundamentally what its core advocates have always claimed it to be.

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zoom out 🔎🙃

try to see the forest for the trees here imo 🌲🌲🌲

choo chooo 🚂🚂🚂