Bitcoin neural network analysis week 49/2018: No realistic bull run yet
Analysis of past week:
After some rounds of crashes we finally had again a rather stable week with some small gains. The network prediction was quite accurate and made some profits.
I am comparing three strategies, first hold fiat and make a small profit elsewhere, hold bitcoin, or follow the network predictions. Since I started documenting my predictions on the blockchain these strategies compare as
Fiat with a weekly profit of 0.5%: 13977.99$ (up 0.5 %)
Holding BTC: 4139.88$ (up 3.4%)
Network strategy: 4434.40$ (up 3.4%)
Starting capital: 11497.40$
The fiat strategy is up since most of the documented time has been a bear market, but the neural network has gained a small advantage over btc.
Forecast:
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Red areas are predicted below the current price, blue/yellow areas indicate the expected passive growth, green areas are better than the expected growth. The vertical line is one week into the future and its size provides the prediction variance. The network prediction is smooth as the random noise is filtered out.
The network does not see big movements in the remaining of this year. It expects some small trend upwards, but nothing special. The target is 4151.06$ with a medium prediction variance.
Even though the forecast is slightly optimistic, the network prefers fiat over bitcoin for the coming week. My strategy will be holding fiat.
This post is not financial advice! I am testing the potential to use neural networks for price predictions and am documenting my results on the blockchain to have provable public results. All prices are based on 0:00 UTC for consistency!
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