Bitcoin neural network analysis week 35/2018: Tiny gains?

in bitcoin •  3 months ago

Analysis of past week:
The network saw a boring week with small gains and that was a quite good prediction. But the network strategy made a small loss because it saw the gains to be smaller than the 0.5% line, when they were above that threshold.

I am comparing three strategies, first hold fiat and make a small profit elsewhere, hold bitcoin, or follow the network predictions. Since I started documenting my predictions on the blockchain these strategies compare as

Fiat with a weekly profit of 0.5%: 13035.26$ (up 0.5 %)
Holding BTC: 6707.26$ (up 3.1%)
Network strategy: 7184.42$ (up 0.5%)
Starting capital: 11497.40$

The fiat strategy is up since most of the documented time has been a bear market, but the neural network has gained an advantage over btc.

download (30).png
Red areas are predicted below the current price, blue/yellow areas indicate the expected passive growth, green areas are better than the expected growth. The vertical line is one week into the future and its size provides the prediction variance. The network prediction is smooth as the random noise is filtered out.

The network sees some small rises coming for the entire month. Nothing wild but maybe the start of a longer lived recovery? For the coming week we have a target of 6773.18$ with a rather small prediction variance.
For the next week the network prefers btc over fiat. My strategy for the coming week therefore is holding btc.

This post is not financial advice! I am testing the potential to use neural networks for price predictions and am documenting my results on the blockchain to have provable public results. All prices are based on 0:00 UTC for consistency!

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