Bitcoin neural network analysis week 33/2018: We are not at the bottom yet

Analysis of past week:

The network saw very boring times ahead, when instead we had another week of crashes. Needless to say, the network strategy was suboptimal this week.

I am comparing three strategies, first hold fiat and make a small profit elsewhere, hold bitcoin, or follow the network predictions. Since I started documenting my predictions on the blockchain these strategies compare as

Fiat with a weekly profit of 0.5%: 12905.88$ (up 0.5 %)
Holding BTC: 6322.69$ (down 10.5%)
Network strategy: 6947.19$ (down 10.5%)
Starting capital: 11497.40$

The fiat strategy is up since most of the documented time has been a bear market, but the neural network has gained an advantage over btc.

Forecast:

Red areas are predicted below the current price, blue/yellow areas indicate the expected passive growth, green areas are better than the expected growth. The vertical line is one week into the future and its size provides the prediction variance. The network prediction is smooth as the random noise is filtered out.

The network prediction, that was rather stable last week, has now turned into the deep red. The signs point to more losses and finding a bottom below the 6000$ line. But in the short run it expects a short-lived recovery up to 6388.70$ before dropping in the following weeks.

For the next week the network still prefers bitcoin over fiat, but the prediction error is large. My strategy for the coming week therefore remains holding btc.

This post is not financial advice! I am testing the potential to use neural networks for price predictions and am documenting my results on the blockchain to have provable public results. All prices are based on 0:00 UTC for consistency!