You are viewing a single comment's thread from:
RE: BTC – Elliott Wave, Price Targets, and Chart Patterns – PLUS: A "FRESH" Chart-Cast VIDEO overview!
Wow - thank you for the shout-out. That is so kind of you and totally unexpected.
My intention is really to bring value to the community and is not money related. Unfortunately (from my series point of view) I am traveling at the moment so I am happy to keep the daily series alive but being unable to improve it further (you will be a part of it for sure). One thing in my mind is to do a weekly bigger summary - the last weeks the daily format was the right one I guess but coming to calmer waters the weekly view is probably the more important one. Also it is more a challenge for the analysts to give weekly targets (need to think how to get them on-board). The sync is here the challenge I guess - so a bit of brain work still to go.
Thank you for bringing such value! I think what your doing is a great service to the community, and I also like your idea to include a weekly "big-picture" summary of sorts. I'm not certain about the other technicians, however, when I calibrate price targets they really don't have a set timeline associated with them. I'm certain you'll come up with something that hits the spot just right! Thanks again, brother, I appreciate all that you do!
You right - putting a date to a price is not what I meant (probably not well explained by me). I meant some of the analyst are very short term by looking into 15min chart, other are going with the flow adapting their scenarios more often than others which is sometime difficult to follow than. I guess it should be possible to have a count/prdiction which should be stable (on the right detail level) for around a week. Of course there might be certain soecial event which makes it necessary to update im between but with 1 or 2 (max 3) updates you should be good. Also giving targets with a probability would be great (@ew-and-patterns is doing that from time to time). So overall this means exposure because you can be wrong but that is what is most helpful for the community I think.
I hear you, man. Makes sense! Yes, the probability factor that @ew-and-patterns occasionally provides can be helpful for sure, however, I wonder how exactly he is calculating/quantifying such probabilities.
What I prefer to do instead, insofar as price targets are concerned, is to put a "failure price" in place that would cancel or negate such a target. That way, folks can calculate their downside risk vs. reward, and where perhaps to set their stop-loss orders. There is no guesswork involved with such an approach, just a bit of simple math is all.
Thanks for clarifying the balance of your thoughts!