BTC - a view from the Mountain - 2019 January
BTC - a view from the Mountain
- Design to be optimized
- Further indicators to be added. Suggestions welcome.
After December being rough - January was rather calm. Lets see for February.
4th quarter a desaster only topped by Q1 this year. The year with -73.4% a dream for those holding short positions ... but only for them.
Q1 - typically not a strong quarter. We will see - may be the phase to bottom out.
Full Bear market indicated - 7 week is picking up though
Heikin Ashi - monthly
Strong bear Mode
Valuation: 130 - above channel (top at 90).
Signal - sideways close below 100
- strong buy -
Below 2.4 x the MA 200 = buy signal.
Activity / Momentum indicator
Turning back down 149'000 transactions (constantly 200'000+ we are looking for).
transactions per day
Still looks strong - with around 350'000 transactions about 87.5% of ATH (400'000)
With active addresses declining it seems like the intensity of the activity of those on board increased.
Google search BTC USD
Back down to 6% of ATH - nobody cares.
BTC Infrastructure (Mining) related
Hashrate is getting back up.
Overall picture and scenarios
A scenario of woo bull - just one which resonates with me most. I thought I share it with you guys.
And another scenario from my friend @passion-ground. He put this together quite some time ago as viable option and it seems this becomes reality. Interesting to see that it could match with the scenario of woo bull.
Old chart log scale
I found this little chart from 2014 - middle of the bear market. Probably a lot of people loosing hope that day. That chart made the insane looking prediction that BTC will reach 10'000 USD by 22-Nov-2017 (actual btc close that day was 8'214).
What a crazy guy that must have been..
Chart predicts we are going to see 125'000 by 2021 - not going to happen or maybe it does??!!??