BTC - a view from the Mountain - 2018 December

in bitcoin •  9 months ago 

BTC - a view from the Mountain

Depositphotos_13743211_xl-2015.jpg

Blog news

  • Design to be optimized
  • Further indicators to be added. Suggestions welcome.

Performance statistic

monthly performance:

Bildschirmfoto 2019-01-01 um 13.29.40.png
December also not good to BTC investor even though we saw a rally up from mid of December. January is typically a bad month for BTC - we this be inverse this time like Nov + Dec were?

quarterly/half-yearly/yearly performance

Bildschirmfoto 2019-01-01 um 13.29.12.png
4th quarter a desaster only topped by Q1 this year. The year with -73.4% a dream for those holding short positions ... but only for them.
Q1 - typically not a strong quarter. We will see - may be the phase to bottom out.

Trend indicator

consensio

Bildschirmfoto 2019-01-01 um 14.00.59.png
Changed the MAs to 7 / 14 / 30
Full Bear market indicated

Heikin Ashi - monthly

Bildschirmfoto 2019-01-01 um 14.25.00.png
Strong bear Mode

Value indicator

NVT ratio/signal

Bildschirmfoto 2019-01-01 um 14.05.00.png
Bildschirmfoto 2019-01-01 um 14.01.54.png

Valuation: 114 - above channel (top at 90).
Signal retested 100 moving down.
http://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-nvt-ratio/

Mayer multiple

Bildschirmfoto 2019-01-01 um 14.08.17.png
Bildschirmfoto 2019-01-01 um 14.09.05.png

Activity / Momentum indicator

Network momentum

Bildschirmfoto 2019-01-01 um 14.36.32.png
Trending up - peaked and is back at around 150'000 transactions (constantly 200'000+ we are looking for). The peak is probably explained by coinbase reorganizing cold storage (8% of all bitcoin were moved).

active adresses

Bildschirmfoto 2019-01-01 um 14.18.12.png
slightly going down - more people capitulating?
https://www.blockchain.com/de/charts/n-unique-addresses?timespan=180days

transactions per day

Bildschirmfoto 2019-01-01 um 14.15.39.png
uptrend - reastablished. Looks strong - with around 300'000 transactions about 75% of ATH (400'000)
With active addresses declining it seems like the intensity of the activity of those on board increased.
https://www.blockchain.com/de/charts/n-transactions

Google search BTC USD

Bildschirmfoto 2019-01-01 um 14.13.27.png
Bildschirmfoto 2019-01-01 um 14.13.54.png
10 % of ATH - slightly trending up (see last 90 days chart).
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=btc%20usd

BTC Infrastructure (Mining) related

Hash rate

Bildschirmfoto 2019-01-01 um 14.10.28.png
Hashrate is stabilizing.

Difficulty

Bildschirmfoto 2019-01-01 um 14.11.12.png
Moving up slightly - first time since 6'000 failed.

Overall picture and scenarios

Woo Bull

A scenario of woo bull - just one which resonates with me most. I thought I share it with you guys.
DtcnaIjXoAACwgj.jpg

Passion-Ground

And another scenario from my friend @passion-ground. He put this together quite some time ago as viable option and it seems this becomes reality. Interesting to see that it could match with the scenario of woo bull.
BTC - 11-27-2018  Bear Market Update.png

Old chart log scale

Bitcoin-Chart.png
I found this little chart from 2014 - middle of the bear market. Probably a lot of people loosing hope that day. That chart made the insane looking prediction that BTC will reach 10'000 USD by 22-Nov-2017 (actual btc close that day was 8'214).
What a crazy guy that must have been..
Chart predicts we are going to see 125'000 by 2021 - not going to happen or maybe it does??!!??

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Great big-picture breakdown to start the New Year!
Thanks for the shout out, brother - hope you had a great Holiday!

Yes I did. Hope you did as well. Thanks for your appreciated feedback my friend. Let me know if you would think any other aspect would add value!

Thank you very much for this report!

My opinion:

  • New ATH in 2020
  • Let's be patient!
  • Never sell your precious coins!

Beside the chance of becoming "rich" - Holding BTC (and gold) is a clear denial of our ill monetary system.

Absolutely - Love your view.

Happy new year @famunger. I am glad to come back to upvote you nice post agian.

Happy new year Rosethiyada. Where are you at the moment?

I am still in Norway. I will go back home on March. So excited!

Happy new year ^^
Wish you and family a great 2019 ahead.

Chart predicts we are going to see 125'000 by 2021 - not going to happen or maybe it does??!!?

Let's hope it does then!

Happy new year Joy - in deed - hope remains. Are you still traveling?

Just came back in Belgium now.

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