Bitcoin TA - summary of analysts - 31. July 18
Regular daily update on BTC ta analysts opinions.
My summary - short-term (next 24h) sentiment: bullish (last: bullish)
We dropped to 7'800
It is important to see if this is "just" wave 4 followed by wave 5 up which brings us towards 9'000
Or if this is just a corrective ABC pattern at the end bringing us to new lows.
It seems in the war of the bears and bulls we are entering another battle: Can the bulls create enough FOMO to create distance to the lows and overcome major resistance levels? If so we are not going to see the current levels for a long time.
Or do the bears lead the bulls into a trap and than smashing hard to the downside. That would create a lot of frustration and might lead to the capitulation which you would expect to be necessary to call the bear market over.
- After completing 5 waves up we reconfirm 7'000+ level in a ABC pull back gathering strength for another move up.
- That confirms a higher low and bullish 5 wave count.
- Volume needs to increase.
- We overcome the death cross area of the 30/50 week MA and break above it.
- We move up for one or two weeks into the death cross (30 and 50 MA weekly) at around 8'500 and than drop significantly.
- Alternate - bears are turning after the RSI gets oversold and make a lower low
- After breaking 5'800 a significant drop towards new lows in the range of 4'975 and 4'300.
*scenarios based on daily-candles - so around 4-14 days timeframe. See also definition section
Summary of targets/support/resistance of TAs
mid- and long-term overview
- please refer to definition section for time-horizon.
- be aware that mid- and long-term is mostly my interpretation of what analysts sentiment is as they not always clearly differentiate those time-frames. To interpret that consistently is very hard so please be kind with my interpretation.
- you can easily spot which analyst did an update
(block writing - grey ones don't have an update today).
Their changes are in light blue.
- Added 2012 + 2013 on request.
- As 2012 and 2013 the % move are gigantic I added two averages. One without 2012 + 2013.
- June performance was very weak. With -14.8% clearly below the average of the last years. With 2013 this is the only negative month at all.
- July is a mixed bag - 2 year positive performance and 2 year of negative performance. 2012 and 2013 were positive though.
- The average is positive with 2.1% but that is mainly due to the bull rund 2017. The average incl. 2012and 2013 is even more positive. That is mainly due to the 40%+ spike in 2012 so I wouldn't rely on that.
So just looking at this table we probably facing another negative month.
News about the blog
- I added two analysts
- CryptoCred: Posting target on twitter and has very good educational videos. See Educational links section for them.
- Forflies: I added him not knowing him too well - that is why his logo is in grey box - meaning under evaluation.
Analysts key statements:
Weekly: He sees us dropping from the death cross. If we close below 7'400 TD is flipping that will create a bad bearish environment. If we drop below 6'300 that will be a big problem for BTC.
Daily: 200 MA seems to reject us and always was a strong resistance - turned us already one time before. He will be bullish if we go above the 200 MA and above swing high at 8'496.
@lordoftruth (slightly bullish):
on holiday until August 5th.
TBitcoin price fluctuates above 8'000 barrier, trying to resume the
main bullish trend ( The trend is slighty bullish as long as the price above 7'650 ) supported by Stochastic Positivity.
But the price appears to be faced some bearish pressure ( As we expected in our previous post ) before the Major Resistance at 8'642 and might be forced to retreat from the climb, to test 7.650K before the moving ( In absence of another set of positive developments to sustain the climb ) towards 38.2% FIB level near 7.050K, supported by RSI Negativity.
Todays trend is Slighty Bullish. Trading between 7'650 and 8'280.
BTC is showing clear evidence of blue wave 4 coming to an end soon. This means the final wave up to complete this bigger white wave 1 is about to start soon as well.
This is ultra important! We need to see at least 8500+1 to have some confidence that this is infact an impulse wave and not some ABC correction within a bigger correction.
Blue wave 4 could be done already, but a little lower does not hurt the count at all.
A good target for this blue wave 5 of white wave 1 would be 9000$.
White wave 2 is where I will be buying. Alts and BTC... stay tuned...
BTW: If this playes out like shown in this pic (up to 9k, then down to 7k), white wave 5 target is 13500 (if white wave 3 is 162% again) which would kill a few bearish counts (but not all of them).
The above song is from a 1977 Isley Brothers album entitled, “Go for Your Guns.” Although most hodlers “went for their guns” a long time ago, the price of BTC is climbing, - it keeps pushin’ - and we’re bound to know. (If the recent low is going to hold or not – that is.) Though the ladder remains shaky, it still remains up that we gotta go! "Ain't nuthin' wrong, babe, in believin' in a dream!"
We were extremely overbought. RSI is showing divergence against those highs (4hours). That tells him we need to pull back some time. If we do so he would like to see that the uptrend channel holds.
Volume is not looking so good. It is declining long term.
No oscillator is showing bullish divergence - that you would expect from multiples for a major trend reversal.
Still he thinks it is an impulsive move up and not a corrective one.
Expecting the 4th wave is not in - he expects us to come down to 7'600 and than go up towards the 8'731.
Wow! Last night I went to bed confident the uptrend was solid . . . and more bullish that ever . . . only to find we rolled over again . . . my balance dropped 15% from its peak. . . . and got stopped out . . . no matter how right you think you are . . . money management trumps all.
Time to become a small trader again.
Remember, many large traders become small traders, most small traders remain small traders, a few small traders become large traders . . . and wise large traders choose to be small traders again . . .
You do not need sharp technical skills or market analysis to be a successful trader . . . the key to success is humility and money management.
Crypto Cred (bullish):
Many intraday traders (myself included) have been roughed up recently.
Let’s take a deep breath and zoom out to the 1W.
Price is currently retesting the Weekly block it broke through last week.
Low at 7200s must hold.
If this fails, next support at 6800s.
He sees this as the calm before the storm.
The ichimoku cloud we are trading for some time in and he is expecting we are clearing it soon.
Same than last time.
Volume pump from 14 to 17 billion in btc upmove. That is good news.
We have a new higher low in this swing.
With that we remain in a short - mid term bullish setup. He is expecting 9'100 incoming.
We are forming a falling wedge. We might form a further low at 7'700 (0.618) and than break out to the upside.
He sees a good risk reward for a long position.
|analyst||latest content date||link to content for details|
|Tone Vays||31. July||here|
|Tyler Jenks||18. July||here|
- light blue highlighted = all content that changed since last update.
- sentiment = how in general the analysts see the current situation (bearish = lower prices more likely / bullish = higher prices more likely). The sentiment is based on 4hr, daily, weekly, monthly candle charts.
- The forecast time horizon of candles can be compared with approx. 4hr = 1-2 days; daily = 4-14 days; weekly = 4 - 14 weeks; monthly = 4 - 14 month.
- target = the next (short term) price target an analysts mentions. This might be next day or in a few days. It might be that an analyst is bullish but sees a short term pull-back so giving nevertheless a lower (short term) target.
- support/res(istance) = Most significant support or resistances mentioned by the analysts. If those are breached a significant move to the upside or downside is expected.
- From @ToneVays: Learning trading
- From @lordoftruth: Fibonacci Retracement
- From UglyOldGoat: How to achieve the same results of a professional trader without taking the inherent risks
- From CrytptoCred: Several great educational videos - very structured and helpful
- From @haejin: Elliott Wave Counting Tutorial
*If you like me to add other analysts or add information please let me know in the comments.