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RE: My thoughts on how the Bitcoin fork will play out.
Wouldn't it be easier to find blocks if there was less competition because hashing power left? Seems like the biggest issue would be slower blocks and replay attacks since the other chain would be moving fastet
If it takes you 20 Petahash to find a block every 10 minutes and you remove 15 Petahash it will take you 40 minutes to find a block until the difficulty changes. My guess is that after the 2 months the difficulty will swing the other way an they will have 5-7 min block times. The question is do the miners have the extra money sitting around to mine for 2 months while only getting 25% of the payout they should be getting. Next the value of Corecoin at this point should be very low as most Bitcoin users do not care about the blocksize debate. What they do care about is is paying the lowest fees they can, store of value, and fast transactions. These 40 minute block times should last about 8 weeks if they can maintain 25% hashing power. Slower blocks and replay attacks would only happen to people trying to maintain a minority chain. You forgot also the minority chain would be 75% less secure. Forget the politics for just and second and consider, as a miner what chain would you mine? As a Bitcoin holder using it as a store of value or for commerce, what chain would you rather have your coins on.
I just did the math real quick and Bitfury has 12% of the hash power today. This gets them about 216 Bitcoins a day or $216,000 USD at current prices. 25% of 216 is 43 Corecoins a day or $43,000 USD a day while they are still incurring the same operating costs for 2 months. At the end of the day the Corecoins they are mining could end up being worthless, where Bitcoin will just keep doing it's thing.
But wouldn't they get more coins if there was less competition? 4 x as more to be exact? I assume with that has lh they get 12 percent of coins but if you lost hat much hash wouldn't they get 48 percent of coins?