P (Probability) the Bitfinex hackers are caught and the BTC recovered AND Bitfinex still remains in business AND Bitfinex honors its loosely worded promises
If more people would (or could) think probabistically, the world would be a better place.
I work in a field that would benefit. But most people stick to their gut and what feels good. Honestly, most people don't even read up on process (team building, diversity, probability techniques) and how to improve or what mistakes to easily avoid (cognitive biases, groupthink). Which stinks in general but is awesome for people who don't think that way. Always advantaged in the actual work, if not in the narrative and politics of the work.
I would add in a possibility of the hacker returning the money, a 5% reward has been stated but they could probably get 10%, add to that the trading they could do on bitmex on the bfx tokens. Not too likely but a possibility.
I agree with the rest of the points and had being thinking a lot of them but as I had x amount bfx I didn't want to believe them, when price went back to $0.40 I figured it was time to get out, if I was being more rational I would've bailed at $0.20.
I posted this on the other article, but figured I'd share my opinion here as well.
Many assumptions are in your math above. First let me discuss the money owed to customers. Roughly 70 million tokens were issued with $1 being par with each token. Many of those shares will be given the chance to become actual shareholders in Bitfinex. I know of some folks who are eager to own the largest $ exchange of BTC.
This will greatly decrease BFX's outstanding liability on a debt basis. I also know of interested parties who MIGHT give BFX a cash infusion for an equity stake. This is the time for them! You buy when there is blood in them there streets and it's mighty bloody out there.
I personally believe the above and a couple options not mentioned will greatly reduce the debt BFX owes it's customers. Traders are likely to not only return in strength, but new customers as well. Your sample day of volume is about to rise significantly. I traded professionally for many years and I'm a contrarian by nature. Disclosure: I have a large position in BFX tokens and it's going to get larger. Bitfinex can actually come out of this situation stronger than ever!
Great piece, @eeks. Any chance you're willing to share your formula?
So 0.05 * 0.7 * 0.95 = 3.3%.
Thank you!
If more people applied bayes theorem to make decisions, the world would be a better place.
If more people would (or could) think probabistically, the world would be a better place.
I work in a field that would benefit. But most people stick to their gut and what feels good. Honestly, most people don't even read up on process (team building, diversity, probability techniques) and how to improve or what mistakes to easily avoid (cognitive biases, groupthink). Which stinks in general but is awesome for people who don't think that way. Always advantaged in the actual work, if not in the narrative and politics of the work.
What's so unlikely in this world?
Everything is possible if there is.
"Bitfinex still don't know how the hack happened." that is not assured for your existed and new customers.
Need to withdraw everything from there for sure.
I would add in a possibility of the hacker returning the money, a 5% reward has been stated but they could probably get 10%, add to that the trading they could do on bitmex on the bfx tokens. Not too likely but a possibility.
I agree with the rest of the points and had being thinking a lot of them but as I had x amount bfx I didn't want to believe them, when price went back to $0.40 I figured it was time to get out, if I was being more rational I would've bailed at $0.20.
I posted this on the other article, but figured I'd share my opinion here as well.
Many assumptions are in your math above. First let me discuss the money owed to customers. Roughly 70 million tokens were issued with $1 being par with each token. Many of those shares will be given the chance to become actual shareholders in Bitfinex. I know of some folks who are eager to own the largest $ exchange of BTC.
This will greatly decrease BFX's outstanding liability on a debt basis. I also know of interested parties who MIGHT give BFX a cash infusion for an equity stake. This is the time for them! You buy when there is blood in them there streets and it's mighty bloody out there.
I personally believe the above and a couple options not mentioned will greatly reduce the debt BFX owes it's customers. Traders are likely to not only return in strength, but new customers as well. Your sample day of volume is about to rise significantly. I traded professionally for many years and I'm a contrarian by nature. Disclosure: I have a large position in BFX tokens and it's going to get larger. Bitfinex can actually come out of this situation stronger than ever!