RE: Bitcoin vs Gold debate intensifies
That was an excellent article, nicely done.
My hunch is that Bitcoin inevitably will go on booming, it doesn't have much of a "chance" do go bust before it reaches epic levels of 1m $ per coin - if the governments play along. That is I guess the biggest threat to cryptos.
Overall you just have to give the current boom a 1% chance of not being a bubble or being a bubble that will only burst when the value has reached 1m $ per coin. Now calculate the expectational value: 1m *1% = 10k $. So, if you invest now at 4k $, you will make a decent profit.
That is I believe at least implicitly embedded in everyone's mind. And as soon as more barriers are passed, the more the fire of the boom/hype will burn, which will drive up the price even more.
I think that's why even relatively conservative investors say, that you shouldn't ignore Bitcoin completely. Really conservatives on the other hand know about the fallacies and the certain end of things. For them it will never make sense to support something that you can't trade during the apocalypse.
It's such a tremendous disservice as financial commentator to scare people away from cryptocurrency. Indeed, even if the chance of an extreme outcome on the upside is low, it is still a good bet. A prime example of Taleb's asymmetrical bet: a bet with a known maximum loss and infinite reward on the upside.
For people concerned about the financial system and the debt building up, I see no reason why gold should be the only hedge. A small stake in cryptocurrencies besides gold would not be a bad strategy.