My view on why bitcoin is no bubble (yet)

in #bitcoin8 years ago

Hi everybody,

yesterday I saw a post here where it was discussed why bitcoin might be a bubble.
As I see those discussions quite often in several social networks I would like to give my statement about this.

Let me explain why I personally think that bitcoin is actually no bubble (yet):

First of all lets define a bubble:
From my knowledge a bubble in the financial economy is a situation in which the market price is many times over the intrinsic value.

Intrinsic value of bitcoin:
bitcoin has currently a market value of round about 200 billion $.
Although the technology behind it is so revolutionary that it has the potential to enable global financial infrastructure to all the people in the world that currently have no access to it due to unstable economies, hyperinflated currencies or government restrictions, its value is still lower than the value from companies like Apple, Amazon, Microsoft etc.

Moreover, the majority of people living in the western world do not have the intrinsic need to use bitcoin in order to survive...literally!
Let's take Venezuela for example. The use and mining of Bitcoin is officially prohibited within the country, "regulated" by the government that hyperinflated its own local currency. However people actually don't give a f*** and mine and use bitcoin and prove successfully that it is censorship resistant. As electric power is extremely subsidized and almost free, people are able to mine bitcoin worth about 500$ monthly and survive in its own country.

This is only one of the many examples what bitcoin does to underdeveloped and highly unstable economies, it actually saves its people from poverty.

Current value of bitcoin
As I was reading the post yesterday, bitcoin was at round about 11,400 $ and just fell 300$, most probably due to cashouts from people who just got US-Dollar Millionaires. No problem so far as we have seen this drops several times within the last months.
The last two times the "bubble" appeared to burst, bitcoin fell 20-30% of its value within one day but recovered within one week followed by several new all time highs on its way up.

Now I will make something really clear what many people do not want to see or understand:

Bitcoins respectively current price is based on Supply & Demand, so actual individuals buying & selling bitcoins in order to cashout or to invest in it.
Moreover, the supply & demand of bitcoin also increased as Blockchain is the ultimate buzzword in today's global business industry since this year.
This has really nothing to do with economic bubbles as we have seen it 2008 in the real estate bubble where the banks have given loans to almost everybody. Neither does it have to do anything with inflation of bitcoin...yes I even read stuff like this!

Another fact that tells me bitcoin is seriously challenging today's banking infrastructure, is that even private- and central bank executives seriously publicate "news" about how bitcoin is a fraud, a bubble, or only used from criminal activities. Andreas Antonopolous always talks about the 5 stages of grief, which totally fit in today's picture when financial institutions talk about bitcoin.

Getting back to the initial topic I would say at the current stage of economical use of bitcoin it would be a bubble at a market capitalization of "trillions". However, when we reach this capitalization we should definitely look back at its stage of economical usage.

I personally think that at this certain time, several currently underbanked regions have adapted the digital currency to a full extent and consequently prove that cryptography actually works in terms of real money.

For who is interested: I started investing in bitcoin just this year in July, I have heard from it the very first time in 2015 but I was totally uninformed and didn't know much about it. This changed this year and I think it is still early enough to be party of this journey that will change a lot of lifes within the next decade and especially those of our kids.

Just once again, this is only my personal opinion.

I would like to hear your opinion on this.
When you comment please to not troll, please do not necessarily refer to other cryptocurrencies, altcoins or all the other Blockchain-topics that do not refer to bitcoin, because this threat really is not about it.

I am curious about the discussions!

Best Regards

Chris

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my only concern is that the bitcoin network doesn't have the strength to take on hundreds of thousands of transactions. It can only do 7 per second. There are thousands of other coins that do a much better job that bitcoin as a currency, which is why it might be hard for Bitcoin to be anything more than a store of value. It's value comes from being something you can store without a physical location and the fact that it is a currency, but not a very good one, just popular. I'm not sure what will happen, but it's hard to say that the original Bitcoin will make it in the very long term. I'm sure one of it's forks could be used as a currency though.

I totally understand that fear.
Let's point out here that all the altcoins that want to tackle the current non-existent scalability from bitcoin, have evolved as they are supposed to fix bitcoins "bugs"...
I think the best example of failing here is BCH with a view on https://fork.lol/

Yes, the Bitcoin chain as it is cannot handle those amount of transactions, but exactly this is why the lightning network evolves. The transaction itself is done off-chain but as far as I know the TX will be signed and validated onchain. Just take a moment and search for lightning network in youtube, you will find several videos where people already processed instant payments with lightning software.
And as soon as the transaction costs get higher and higher, there is a higher need in order to develop lightning to a point where it can be used.
I also think that high transaction costs are good! Because let's be honest, who wants to mine a chain that is cheap?

I guess there has to be some sort of incentive for the miners to help support this decentralized system. Nothing is for free right?

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