How far is the moon? When will Bitcoin hit $1M?
Bitcoin is on its race up again. It seems that every time I turn around it breaks new all-time high. It wasn’t long since I wrote a post that tried to predict how long is it going to take Bitcoin to climb from $7,000 to $8,000. I was betting on 5 days. It took 2.5. Now, we’re already nearly half way mark through $9,000. Exciting times!
I thought it will be fun to write another post and look at what it would take for Bitcoin to reach $1,000,000. It seems crazy to think that it can go this far and only time will tell... For now, let’s have a little fun and look at the numbers.
Bitcoin market cap at the beginning of 2017 was around 16 billion dollars.
Right now Bitcoin is at 158 billion market cap, so we can easily assume that by the end of the year it will reach 160 billion.
So it has grown 10x in one year.
If it continues to grow 10x every year, it would look like this:
Beginning of 2017 – 16 billion market cap – 1 Bitcoin = $1000
End of 2017 – 160 billion market cap – 1 Bitcoin = $10,000
End of 2018 – 1.6 Trillion market cap – 1 Bitcoin = $100,000
End of 2019 – 16 Trillion market cap - 1 Bitcoin = $1,000,000
Ok, so 16 trillion dollars is a lot. But how much exactly is it? It roughly equates to:
- Just over 2x the value of all worlds above-ground gold ($7.7 trillion)
21% value of Global Stock Markets
12.57% of World Money Supply
- 7.37% of Global Real Estate
- 1.33% of Derivatives Market
Bitcoin is an interesting asset because it grows to have many facets. It is digital money, it is also called the ‘store of value’ or ‘digital gold’. As we know from recent news, it has also been announced to be available for futures trading by one of the world’s largest derivatives exchange company, CME. So it will soon be considered as a type of derivative.
So if we combine the value of all of these assets that Bitcoin can consider itself to be, ie. money supply, gold and derivatives we get:
Global above-ground gold reserves: $7.7 trillion
Global money supply: $127.2 trillion
Global derivatives market: $1200 trillion
Total: $1,334.9 trillion
Bitcoin would only need to capture 1.19% of these markets combined to reach 16 trillion market cap and hence a price of $1,000,000 per Bitcoin.
Give it thumbs up and comment if you enjoyed this post! Many Thanks :)
Many thanks to: http://money.visualcapitalist.com/ where I sourced the wealth visalisation graphics from.