What's the current market sentiment?
Denial or Panic?
It makes a big difference. Denial is early in the bear trend, where panic is late and typically below the mean. That makes denial a bad time to buy but panic a good time to buy.
Denial is stuff like "Zoom out the chart and look at the bigger picture, we're still up!" or "The fundamentals are still strong, this drop is irrational"*. I am seeing a lot of posts like this right now, particularly for Bitcoin.
Panic is pretty self explanatory, the sense is that everyone else will capitulate so you need to quickly get out first. It does feel like this, but I'm not seeing many people express it yet.
My sense is that we're only somewhere around denial/fear right now. It was literally two days ago that people were joking about "China Ban Bitcoin", lo and behold China did in fact effectively ban Bitcoin (for now), perhaps that was the height of denial and we've moved on only slightly from there.
* Nobody is fully aware of all fundamental factors, and the market is least cognizant of fundamentals while at the extremes. Positive fundamentals are under-weighted at the bottom and negative fundamentals are ignored at the top.
Good post with original view on it. I just upvoted it.
I think there's definitely fear in the community, but many are denying it to handle that fear.
Luckily China is not the big trading hub in Bitcoin as it once was with Mt. Gox. There are now many alternatives. Chinese Bitcoin users can take their bitcoin to Localbitcoins, Korean and Hong Kong exchanges and any other exchange.
The major downside is that no new fresh Bitcoin buying will come online from CNY. That market will have to build up again.
The chinese exchanges might also have to liquidate their bitcoin holdings, giving a continuous downward pressure on the price.
What a refreshing post...
I wouldn't take steem and reddit communities as an indication of the market as a whole. It's not hard to see how these communities have been setup for denial from the beginning.
The mood right now is somewhere from fear to desperation. Chinese exchanges have closed down but people are desperate to hear some good news from the bigger ones. Of course that's unlikely so we will hit panic in the next few days.
The bitcoin reddit community is like a support group for bitcoin enthousiasts when the price dives
China just played it smart and BTC just fell down :(
I really have almost no informations about it. I am carried by the winds actually :)
amigo #resteemia at your service
definitely capitulation. nice work @demotruk
ReSteemia
'UpVoted ReSteemed Commented'
I have seen no sign of capitulation yet. Capitulation is when we see news reports of Bitcoin traders committing suicide and/or major Bitcoin companies going bust.
It now looks like we have reached somewhere between "hope and optimism".
I see you follow the meta-contrarian school of thought.
I'm in agreement with you, and think we could see a further falls. Saying that, i picked up a little steem yesterday, and will likely do the same today. The 'big bucks' will come out in the 0.4s though!
I might be in denial myself because I still think it's a good time to buy Steem ;-)
Do you need any more? ha ha
Still falling so maybe sit on hands a bit longer!?
Of course, I always need more O_O
Where do you buy? Is there an alternative to sending BTC or whatever to Blocktrades?
Bittrex.com
Thank you, I shall check it out before the next purchase 👍🏾
@demotruk,
nice article :D But it missed HODL :D Coz I am doing it in all two phases :D
Cheers~
Bitcoin is resilient and even if it goes below the $3000 resistance level i have a good feeling it is going to surprise a lot of naysayers when it hit $10 000 before 2018. Bitcoins has proven many critics wrong over the years and i bet it will do it again not to mention the many times it was said that it will die or crash. If bitcoin was a woman man she would be more beautiful than any super model out there. The Asians Governments are up too something here with these announcements seem like they have their hand in the cookie Jar or even testing the markets.
@rogerblu
@demotruk pls what the implications of all this in crypto world. Be more explicit so that we will all understand. Thanks
@eurogee
We all have to work that out for ourselves. If anyone was to tell you how the markets will move, they may be doing it for their own interests, not for yours.
The post is about contrarian investing. It's one way to help make decisions on financial investments. Correctly identifying the current market sentiment is one part of making contrarian investment decisions.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contrarian_investing