How Possible is John McAfee's Prediction and Bet?
If you are out of the loop, you missed John McAfee's outrageous statement on Twitter back in July. If you are really out of the loop and don't know who John McAfee is, well... do some Google. He is most noted as the creator of McAfee Software and of lately being a little off hinge.
~ source: https://twitter.com/officialmcafee/status/887024683379544065
When John made that Tweet, BitCoin was about $2023.70 and he also stated that BitCoin would be above $5,000 by the end of 2017. He reminded everyone that there were two parts to that bet he made. In November, he doubled down on his bet and said that BitCoin would go to $1 million by then end of 2020.
~ source: https://twitter.com/officialmcafee/status/935900326007328768
At the moment, with BitCoin staying about $16,000, John is 3x more right than all the people who called him crazy back in July.
And if you look at BitCoin's performance, the average increase is around 1,200%. If we were to lower it down to a 1,000% increase each year, the future of BitCoin would look something like this based on the close value from yesterday. $16.624
- $182, 864 by the end of 2018
- $2,011,504 by the end of 2019
- $22,126,544 by the end of 2020
John could easily win his bet halfway through 2019 at the current rate that BitCoin is increasing.
The problem with BitCoin is that it doesn't act like a normal investment. If you look at it like the DOW Jones Average, it doesn't help. But, it does give you an idea on how things grow. Here are some numbers that I looked up and determined the Year-to-Year change.
Let's start with the first 15 years of the Stock Market. You might think that would show some significant year over year increases that would match what BitCoin did.
Well, how about in recent years? Does the DOW Jones keep pace with BitCoin?
Or, let's look at some Boom Times in the economy and see how they would compare to BitCoin.
The highest signal year increase, of the times that I looked at, was just over 80%.
Obviously, if BitCoin slowed down to 80% increase year over year, John would be looking at a very disgusting snack on live TV.
In perspective, since the Gold Rush of 1852, gold has only increased 10,425% from around $12 to $1,200 an ounce today. In less than 10 years, BitCoin has increased from $2 to $16,000.
There really isn't any good comparison for what is going on with BitCoin.