Bitcoin/BTC Daily Price Review (06 Mar 18)

This is not Financial advice: Do not trade or invest based on this analysis.

Price

Following from yesterday's review (here), the BTC price continues to grind in a small upward channel and has encountered the first level of significant resistance at about $11,700.

Interestingly, if plotted on a log-scale chart the downward trend line which was broken last week on the linear scale chart (dashed-red line, above) remains intact on the log-scale chart (thick-purple line, below):

Although I don't think this is too significant (as most traders will probably be using linear scales) it reinforces the resistance zone between $12,000 and $13,000.

$12,000 seems to the decisive level, as if the BTC price can convincingly break $12,000 (with volume), it would have made a higher high relative to last week and potentially changed the structure of the chart. This would increase the probability of the upside scenario from the completed inverted head and shoulders pattern playing out ($17,000 target)

If the price fails at $12,000 and breaks below this recent small ascending channel, the downside scenario potentially comes into play and might represent a double-top pattern as favoured by @ctom (post here)

Volume

There's been a very small uptick in volume over the past day or so (probably too small to be significant - but I'll take anything I can get!), which may indicate the return of some traders or may just be some orders being filled at the resistance zone:

The On-Balance-Volume indicator remains undecided:

Bias

My bias remains to the long side: I think the price can have another go at breaking through this resistance zone; however, I'll also be ready for the downside reversal, which will probably kick in if the price drops to about $10,500.

Until tomorrow,

Bobby.