Thursday | 25th October 2018
Good Day all my beloved students & steemians. Inside this daily commentary I will share the short-term technical outlook and trade ideas for Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin.
Previous commentary refer here: http://bit.ly/btcethltc241018
My core strategies refer here: http://bit.ly/taicorestrategies
Do not attempt to use any of the trade ideas contained within unless you have attended my classes and understood the risk and money management behind these ideas.
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Other than a brief spike to $6440.99 (and an unravelling) yesterday, BTC continues flatlined.
As maintained all this while, the view is BTC is more likely to fall than rising significantly.
Yesterday’s rally attempt to challenge last week’s high of $6722.61 was largely anticipated and going forth, a waterfall-like drop is very much anticipated.
That said, only a break below $6331.16 and $6088.14 would confirm this short-term bearish assessment.
In the medium-term, an eventual break below the year’s low at $5738.77 is expected and an extended fall below $4000 in BTC is not inconceivable.
If so, this is most likely the last leg of a year-long fall from last December 17 high, and an critical bottom is in sight.
The consolidation in ETH appears incomplete with wave iv probably needing another up leg. In this regard, allowance is for another rally attempt into the $203.21 - $206.67 bracket before resuming its long-term fall.
In the 4-hourly time frame, a triangle pattern originating from $253.59 could be traced. If another rally develops from current level, this is likely to be the wave c of e of iv.
Assuming this to be the case, we should see a post-triangle thrust to the downside after its completion. As noted all along, an eventual fall to somewhere between $124.00 - $125.00 is a distinct possibility.
But until the rest of the major coins stabilize, it might be difficult for ETH to recover meaningfully. The worst-case scenario is a fall towards $34.50.
Whether or not, ETH fall as deep suggests that this anticipated fall is seen as a terminal one, and a lasting bottom in ETH is expected.
Increasingly, the odds are shifting for cryptocurrencies and buying is becoming attractive.
Similar to ETH, the consolidation in LTC appears incomplete and may require another up leg. In the event that there is another rally attempt, the area between $56.91 - $57.26 or $57.60 - $58.08 could cap.
Otherwise, an immediate break below $50.49 and $$49.55 would signal signal that a top is in place and the long-term downtrend has resumed.
As maintained all this while, the anticipated fall has the potential to take out the year low of $46.91. Over the medium-term, a move to challenge the September 15, 2017 low of $32.48 is not impossible.
But honestly, this level should hold. Sub-$ 40 in LTC looks very attractive to buy.
Like BTC and ETH, LTC is likely in a final decline and should bottom out somewhere between $32.48 - $ 35.50.