Friday | 21th September 2018

Good Day all my beloved students & steemians. Inside this daily commentary I will share the short-term technical outlook and trade ideas for Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin. 

  Previous commentary refer here: http://bit.ly/btcethltc200918

  My core strategies refer here: http://bit.ly/taicorestrategies

  WARNING

Do not attempt to use any of the trade ideas contained within unless you have attended my classes and understood the risk and money management behind these ideas.  

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BTC/USD

BTC spiked higher early this morning to just above $6500.00 before easing back a little. On the face of this spike, the counter-trend rise from 6092.92 may either extend higher towards the $6831.32 - $ 7015.63 as seen in the 4-hourly frame or start unraveling from within $6512.81 - $6558.56 as per the hourly time frame chart indicates. 

Either way, this rise is seen, for the time being, a technical rebound within the larger degree decline from $8449.05. 

If the wave count is correct, we should see another deterioration below $6092.93 towards either the equality target at $5273.79 or $4697.70 - $4902.50 bracket (see 4-hourly chart). However, if there is a surge above 7015.63, a re-evaluation of the bearish scenario needs to be done to ascertain if BTC may has already bottomed out as the bullish view for ETH.                               

TRADE IDEAS

ETH/USD

In the 4-hourly time frame, the rise from $166.88 is so far in 3-waves. As to whether this rise has the potential to become a significant reversal is, at this stage, still unclear but the possibility is clearly there. 

Technically, we need to see a clear 5-wave structure in the 4-hourly time frame to confirm this bullish assessment although in the hourly time frame we already had a 5-wave rally from $166.88 to $225.85. If the rise from $191.59 unfolds into a 5-wave rally, then the odds for a reversal increases. 

Levels wise, the first target is the equality measurement of $166.88 to $225.85 from $191.59 at $250.56 which is located just below a supply zone at $250.60 - $260.18. This has bearish implications. This is because if ETH unravels from within $250.60 - $260.18, then the entire rise from $166.88 is seen a correction and another fall below $166.88 is probable. 

But if this rally surges past $260.18 and towards the supply zone at $281.74 - $286.03 in a clear 5-wave structure, then a reversal is the more likely explanation.                      

TRADE IDEAS

LTC/USD

Like BTC, LTC is currently testing the upper band of recent price movements. If this rise is a corrective rebound, which is the favored scenario, then we must see an immediate turnaround to be followed by a collapse below $46.91. 

In both the 4-hourly and hourly time frames, the rise from $46.91 remains mostly a 3-wave affair and can only be treated as a technical correction at this stage. 

Of the two possible scenarios mentioned in previous updates, an immediate decline from near the intra-day high of $56.98 would suggest that the correction is over and that a resumption of the long-term downtrend is resuming. 

The other possible scenario is an extended run towards the supply zone at $60.48 - $62.96. From there, the resumption of the long-term decline may begin. These are the preferred bearish outlooks. 

A more bullish version of this bearish view is that the rise from $46.91 is incomplete and may ultimately extend towards the supply zone at $67.03 - $68.83 before turning around. For the time being, this alternate bullish view is not considered unless $58.46 is taken out.                           

TRADE IDEAS