What Will Be The Price Of Bitcoin In One Year From Now – Aug 2019? Long term analysis using five years data.

We all see what the current situation is in the crypto. Prices are going down and down and now real UP trend for a long time. Some of the people are starting to lose faith. But is this the real picture. Let’s see how things are looking on a bigger scale.

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Here I’m making a long-term analysis of the price of the bitcoin. I’m using a five years data from coinmarketcap about the price of the bitcoin. Daily data is pulled of and a long-term analysis is made.

Bitcoin is the most relevant crypto of them all. It is the first one and it heavily impact the price of all other coins. Including STEEM. And because it has been around for a long time, there is a good data base. Five years data is excellent base for analysis.

I know there is a lot of analysis on the price on bitcoin and every other crypto, focusing on day to day price etc. But don’t lye to yourself. If anybody is serious about anything in life it takes time. Short term analysis can be very wrong.

Speculating on the crypto market has become a profitable business for a lot of people. This post is not about that. I don’t believe in short term analysis and get rich quick. Even if some people archive to get rich in a quick way, at the end they will lose it fast as well. Easy comes, easy goes.

The ones who have managed to make fast money on crypto and not lose it after that are long term players. They are not first time in this, and they have tried in many places before. So, it is not fast money for them because they have put in it a lot of effort, before even crypto has been around.

This been sad let’s take a look of the analysis.
The period from which the data is taken is from 01.08.203 to 01.08.2018.
After importing the data, chart is formed from it.

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The chart above is a function of the price of bitcoin in time. When showing the relationship between one item in correlation with one other factor, this is called simple linear regression. If more than one factor is included the process is called multiple linear regression.

As we can noticed the trend line has a small steep now, meaning that the price from now one will increase slowly.

Is this one factor enough. Well not at all. As we saw in the past big institutional decisions can have huge impact on the price. For now, let’s keep the thing simple and use only one factor – Time.

Next the linear trendline is added and the formula is extracted. Here it is.

y = 4,4015x + 154492

where:
y – price of bitcoin
x – the date for which the price is calculated

In this format, the date is presented like a numeric value.

Having extracted the formula, we can now input a day in the future and predict the price of bitcoin.

The price of bitcoin in august 2019

To answer the question in the title, we need to input the date in numeric excel vlue in the formula above. The date is 01.08.2019, and the number for this date 43678.

price = 4,4015*43.678 + 154.492 = 7.757

The price of bitcoin in august 2019, using this method will be 7.757

I hope this goes without saying but just to be clear.
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
It is representation of a very simple statistical method to predict the price.

This can be totally inaccurate, and the price can be very different from what it’s shows here. Events can occur that can change the price quite a lot. **
In fact, if you look at the past period, the trendline is very different from the actual price.

Having said this lets now play with the formula and make some wild predictions for the next five years.

No	Date	Price
1	01.01.2019	6.824
2	01.01.2020	8.430
3	01.01.2021	10.041
4	01.01.2022	11.648
5	01.01.2023	13.254
6	01.01.2024	14.861
7	01.01.2025	16.472
8	01.01.2026	18.078
9	01.01.2027	19.685
10	01.01.2028	21.291

From the table it can be concluded that the price of bitcoin should increase in time, but slowly. Not the insane bull run with bitcoin worth of one million.

But as I already said this is just statistics. It shows averages, not exact numbers. The probability for this numbers is bigger in the first 2 -3 years. After that it is simply impossible to predict anything. Millions of factors can appear, and millions of scenarios are possible. And even for the first couple of years, it is just more probable, not sure.

I hope this long-term analysis shows the big picture we are now in the crypto market. What will happen for sure nobody knows. It will be fun to be around and watch how everting will turn around.

All the best.
@dalz