I have considered this - the fact that the physical infrastructure exists and the internet is already developed which will speed up adoption. Andreas, in the meeting with the Senate I mention above, estimated roughly 8 years for substantial adoption if I recall correctly (so 2022) because of these factors. However, I suspect it will take far longer. Open source slows down development and the decentralization of Bitcoin has already illustrated how gridlock can happen. Governance is all over the place.

Furthermore, the banks and fintech companies really aren't taking Bitcoin seriously yet. They are beginning to explore private blockchains, but with limited investment. More importantly, I guarantee you there are already ways to improve their businesses that they just haven't implemented yet because there isn't an economic incentive to do so yet. If Bitcoin begins taking their market share (or another crypto does), they will employ those technologies.

As time goes on, financial institutions won't stay still. Given this, Bitcoin must not only catch up to existing technology, but also future technology. I tend to think it will take far longer than you would suspect (20 years+). But that's one man's opinion.