Bitcoin's Greatest Threat
Hello Steemians,
Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash last night illustrated a perfect example of one of Bitcoin's greatest threats: The herd-like mentality of many investors in this market. In other words, fear.
Given the younger demographic and low experience with investing, many investors in this market follow the money due to FOMO and FUD. Many emotions run rampant, but especially fear (on both sides of the equation). Even the pastebin that is making rounds just adds more fear to the equation. On that subject, I want to say that there are thousands of conspiracy theories out there - Don't blindly accept them as truth.
How many of you bought Bitcoin Cash to ride it up a little bit and make some money? How many of you hedged against the Cashening by buying Bitcoin Cash? Sometimes, moments like these convince me that cryptocurrencies are a bubble despite their phenomenal potential as people invest to make money quickly or out of fear.
For those of you who bought Bitcoin Cash as a hedge for the Cashening last night, please reconsider that strategy. Given their near perfect negative correlation last night, hedging through buying Bitcoin Cash just reduces your net long position in Bitcoin (just sell Bitcoin & reduce position size instead). The opposite is true as well. Note that this is only true as the negative correlation was so high (smaller negative correlations are good). The main reason to do it would be because you want to avoid realizing capital gains on Bitcoin. If you do it because you suspect Bitcoin Cash will have better gains, then realize that is an oxymoron. Just buy Bitcoin Cash in that event.
The point is, scale your positions based on confidence rather than buying both of them. When you buy both, you tie up way more capital for little benefit. That capital could be either deployed elsewhere or left as dry powder on sidelines. If it is all tied up in BTC & BCH, you leave yourself little wiggle room.
Lastly, take a step back and breath. Think about what you feel will be the future of Bitcoin and invest accordingly. Don't go chasing performance just for the sake of chasing it - that's a sure-fire way to get burned.
I'd love to hear your thoughts as always, thank you.
Loved the video, the analysis and your voice, really clear. Thank you
Hmmm very confusing for some... I have upvoted, please upvote me as well
Last night, I also made a post with my TA with warnings of making decisions based on fear and FOMO. Especially with the occurrences taking place yesterday. New traders I find have a hard time doing research. It is interesting because they see the potential to make quick gains and try to "do what others are doing."
With regards to last night, Roger Ver and co pumped the BCH market really hard. To the outside, it looks like there was immediate traction and the gains would be quick and easy. However, it is easy to forget how you established your position on your current holdings. For example, where did you enter? What was your target? What was your stop loss? Sticking to your guns and analysis goes a long way.
I personally, sat out on the BCH train and I am glad I did. By the time, I had the ability to make a panic change, I would have been buying at the top. It is always better to sit one out than buy at the top.
Great post. I completely agree with you. Forget the fear and FOMO.
Last night was a complete mess.
My main problem right now is that BCH is objectively better for transactions and roughly the same for storing wealth. If this wasn't the case then this entire thing would be super simple to write off and HODL.
People keep calling for tribalism or calling heresy on those who fall victim to FUD. But ultimately tribalism and blind trust has zero place in the free market.
One of the threads on reddit is thanking a guy for taking a loss and continuing to mine BTC when most miners move to BCH. That is not a good thing to be happy over! That is nothing short of a tribalistic mentality. Slusho is the users name.
This means the coin was artificially propped up. That is not good news people! That's very bad news.
The free market is going to move toward the coin that functions better. Hands down. That is why the free market is better for consumers than it is for the creators. This is a historical truth.
And the BTC side of things is a bunch of tribalistic mumbo jumbo. BTC needs to be fucking patch and it needs to be patch now. It needs to be an objectively better coin NOW. 5 minutes ago.
Slap something together and make a plan to improve the coin by next week.
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STOPAt this Point it gets ridiculous whats Going on with BTC und BCH.
A change of 1000$ in just One Hour is just too crazy.
Everyone Wants to Make Profit and enters the bch train. When bch Loses worth the People get panic und take their Money also off.
There is just Not enough trust in btc or any other currency yet.
The People just want to get rich quick and thats Why it will take a lot of Time until cryptocurrencies will be used in everyday life.
Just My 2 cents :)
It is because of stupidity of people who invested in bitcoin without understanding what is going on, then, they can be easily manipulated.