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RE: Bitcoin - A Day Of Indecision [13.3.2018]
I'm watching to see if it can now regain the 200 dma in a big way. A double dip below the 200 can mark an important low for a counter trend within a larger trend.
The question is whether the larger trend is still intact or not. My fundamental analysis of BTC and the sector tells me the larger trend is still intact. Whether that means eventual new highs, or a double top, is the next big question, but, with that one, I have no opinion yet.
I think the long term trend is always a point of view. I have the big book on Dow Jones Theory. I have to look in it for when the long-term trend is broken. I typically don't buy an asset if it is below the 200 SMA, I prefer to buy when it reclaims it. Of course this is for my trading account, as a crypto enthusiast I have entry points for my favourite projects and if they hit my price I would gladly buy.
However I mainly look at BTC, at the moment (as we have commented before) I think only BTC matters. If it continues to drop, everything will sell-off until all the weak hands are out.
I think we all believe in the long-term prosperity, thats why most of us have investment accounts and trading accounts. I believe that if we go under a certain price level in BTC, it will get very nasty as margin calls will occur all over the place, which wil be the golden opportunity for people, who sit on cash. If BTC hlds and advances a lot higher - I am still happy with these discounts. :)
Also, are you familiar with the "death cross" ?
We've got a possible death cross on deck for BTC, but this is also where both can start to flatten and mark the point where the 50 begins to turn back higher. That's also classic at this stage if the larger trend is still intact. You can even see a couple of days below the 200, a fake out lower to wash out the last of the weak longs . . . talking, as always in this context, about the situation where the larger trend is still intact.