Predictions for 2019

crypto.inferno (67)in #bitcoin • 6 years ago

It’s still near enough the beginning of the year for some inspired guesswork...

A couple of weeks back, Venturebeat published a list of 10 crypto predictions for this year. They weren’t the only ones – it’s the start of the new year, and taking wild shots in the dark about what might happen is all the rage. While the list is worth a read, there are some predictions that are almost foregone conclusions. We’ll survey a few from Venturebeat, then make one or two of our own.

1. A large bank will enter into the crypto custody business

VB gives this event 100% confidence, and it’s not hard to see why. Virtual cash is obviously going to be huge business, and banks exist to make money. One of them will doubtless acquire a large exchange and/or wallet company. With the launch of Bakkt (soon…) we already have a model of crypto custody. Secure crypto custody is one of the main factors holding back retail money – and banks love retail money. So it’s just going to happen, like it or not, and with it the further convergence of the legacy and digital financial ecosystems.

2. ‘Legacy’ financial institutions will become digital asset infrastructure buyers

Following from the first point, this is also a foregone conclusion. It’s been a brutal bear market, but these are the times when infrastructure is built and tested – so that during the next bull run, it’s hardened and capable of withstanding the onslaught of users. Basically, the companies that put in the hard work now will be the rock stars of the next bull run. Financial organisations will pick up struggling or distressed assets now, or take over strong ones, in order to profit from a market that still has a long way to go.

3. Ethereum will lose ground as the predominant platform for the next generation of coin offerings

This, again, is almost a foregone conclusion. Ethereum is a great platform, but it’s had some problems – scaling and numerous exploits, in particular. The scheduled hard fork was delayed for security reasons. Its smart contracts may be too powerful – and mistakes are costly. Just as bitcoin lost market share as alts arose, so too will Ethereum as competitors arise. Like bitcoin, though, Ethereum can still remain the largest in its class and continue to grow while others are launched and tested by the market.

And now for a couple of our own…

4. Game-changing new tech will launch

We’re seeing some very interesting new protocols being released right now. We’ll be looking at MimbleWimble, Grin and Beam over the coming weeks in our ‘Inferno Picks’ articles, but suffice to say that these are some of the few projects that have got us really excited. The tech is a step-change up from Bitcoin and other blockchains, including existing privacy protocols. It enables digital cash that is actually fit for purpose. But this does not mean that bitcoin will disappear – far from it. And it will take years for them to gain a real foothold.

5. Price will not reach ATH again this year

And what set of predictions would be complete without some price guesswork? This is real finger-in-the-wind stuff, but remember we’ve been here before in the 2014-15 bear market. We expect to see a bottom to the bitcoin downtrend in the next 3-6 months, with a period of consolidation. We’ll see a significant lift in prices by the end of the year, though not to previous highs. If forced to guess, we’d say we’ll end the year at $6k per BTC. But as ever, that’s not trading advice!

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