BTC Market Update and Analysis - 03/13/2018
Just an update on the general bitcoin market. As bitcoin has showed weakness over the last couple of days, it has hit the prices of secondary coins much worse, perhaps in anticipation of more declines.
To analyze Bitcoin, I will be using a chart from a general other currency that behaves like many other cryptos. This analysis may apply to Bitcoin. In the past, Bitcoin has not experienced severe crashes that the rest of crypto would experience, through 2015 into 2017. Yet now that it has experienced a major crash, we might expect something similar to the following chart for bitcoins behavior going forward (devoid of news events.)
This chart is not Bitcoin, but NAV, and this is NAV's historical behavior which is a standard crypto rally with a major crash following:
Relating it to Bitcoin
Here we see that if Bitcoin follows the standard crypto rally and major crash model, it should find a baseline around 1/4 of the rally to the high.
This means that the crash to $6k could be approximately the level of support we should expect to form for bitcoin over the next several months. What I think is different with Bitcoin in 2018, is that when the market becomes confident the baseline level of support has formed, very likely, the rally which follows should gain steam relatively fast. In 2015 we had to wait into next year for the rally to really get going again. It lasted into 2017. When the baseline level of support is trusted by the market, I expect more immediate optimism to appear.
Conclusion:
Very likely, we are still forming the baseline level of support for the market for major investors to find a level of support they are willing to commit to long-term, for the next rallies higher.
BTC Donate: 12EjwZZow8LtsmqmVbwc9VV2Suo3tiEPLg
ETH Donate: 0xCCa7DD999f3F0CBb890861Ce5577b44102Fa4319
EOS Donate: 0xCCa7DD999f3F0CBb890861Ce5577b44102Fa4319
NAV Donate: NNvpuRvL2dMDtUhsTwvTDG2bbG4QbSwm75
great analysis as always @crypto-investor, i have money on the sidelines waiting for that dip ;)
Yeah good. I've found it's best to rebuy either when it's incredibly ugly... OR when you know the rally has resumed due to market psychology. In either case, both of these work well. The 2nd works because we know we're in a long-term bull rally, so in those, you have sustained increases, just got to be sure you're in one and not a dead cat bounce.
normal people can't understand what is happening but great to have your analysis at this time great to see your post after a long time :)
I unfortunately agree with you! A couple months back there was concern about a bottoming out at around 6K, then there was an upswing and many forgot about this possible aspect of the correction. Regardless of where it ends up in the near future I'm confident that Bitcoin will see potential exponential growth in the coming year. Good post! Keep up the great work!
Markets will be boring for some time while the uncertainty plays out related to the Mt Gox whale give the supply of BTC he has to sell and more importantly, regulation. In the meantime, fundamentally, adoption will continue to increase as the projects supporting the assets push technology and use cases forward. Given that I highly doubt US regulators will push away innovative industries such as Cryptos, I see a healthy future where balance between regulation, security and demand will move the market forwars for thise projects that focus on achieving the goals of efficiency and solving economic issues they are meant to solve.
Coins mentioned in post:
For future viewers: price of bitcoin at the moment of posting is 9184.90USD
Where BCT goes from here? It remains to be seen, but thanks for the post anyhow.
Great post @crypto-investor.
Indeed market is consolidating before making its next move. For long term investors in block-chain, this calls for patience. Next quarter Q2 will be interesting when we see more smart money (ie. hedge funds) coming into the crypto market.
still feel very bad that i missed out on the nav at the very beginning
seems like again a big dip will come its not great till now lots of dips again and again after all the FOMO