Reality of the Situation: BTC, ETH, XRP & BCHsteemCreated with Sketch.

in bitcoin •  last month

You know when you first started watching horror films, and they were scary as hell. After a while you get a bit desensitized? That’s happening with me and coinmarketcap right now. These big double-digit reds are starting to lose their meaning. You see in January a 15% loss was massive, now that the numbers are as small as they are, 15% is a lot less scary then it used to be.
Ethereum is falling very hard. From 0.1 BTC on its way currently to 0.03. The only flippening that’s happening any time soon as this one.
It’s been so bad that the logo has considered being revised: https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/comments/974mzg/ethereum_got_a_new_logo/ The first time in Ethereum’s few year history, that the price has not been higher than exactly 12 months previous. https://coinmarketcap.com/historical/20170813/ Looks like a second chance to me, maybe even the bottom, not sure, but as far as causes for this, not switching over to proof of stake yet isn’t helping, but we would have to say it’s due to capitulation primarily.
Enough people are cashing out of their Ethereum positions. Who are the guys that can do that the most? ICOs. So many of these fund-raising companies have millions of dollars’ worth of Ethereum. So obviously people are blaming those companies for this downward pressure now. Perhaps that’s exactly what is happening, we don’t know for sure, but it isn’t helping. Companies like EOS have a silly amount of Ethereum, this article suggesting that more than one billion dollars of Ethereum has been sold off this year: https://www.trustnodes.com/2018/05/09/eos-spent-one-billion-dollars-worth-eth-past-month-data-reveals
But on the flipside, would there have been such a demand for Ethereum, and for setting record all-time highs, if it wasn’t for these massive fundraising companies? Double edged sword.
One number that is rocketing is Bitcoins dominance. For ease of use I just go by what CMC shows, even though it does have some inherent flaws. You see the problem is that there are thousands of thousands of coins that Bitcoin is competing against, when you could argue that is completely unfair. Market cap goes by the last trade made, and for coins way at the bottom of the pile with little to no liquidity that market cap is a complete fabrication.
If however you were to measure Bitcoins dominance against say the top 50 coins that have that liquidity, Bitcoin is closer to 85% dominant.
As far as Ripple goes it’s hard to say why it continues to fall as hard as it is. It was one of the hardest to pump in 2017, but -93% from the ATH as of today is beyond imagining. We’re way beyond buying the dip at this point. You would’ve expected buying at -50% off would’ve been.
Bitmain Cash in the immediate future I would say on the face of it doesn’t look good. It might have continued support on exchanges, being propped up artificially or by real demand, or a bit of both, at 0.08 BTC per coin, but the breaking news which is continuing to do the rounds online about the potential issues with Bitmain being forced to become more profitable by its new shareholders after it becomes a public company is a very real possibility and huge threat. Bitmain are estimated to hold in their possession somewhere in the region of 750,000 to over 1,000,000 bitcoin cash coins.
Bitcoin has a similar threat, Satoshi Nakamoto actually. The biggest difference here is that Santoshi’s estimated holdings of 980,000 Bitcoins (and BCH if he wanted) have never been moved. It’s extremely odd that a person would not use even a portion of their nearly $6 billion resources, but if he or she or they were to ever move even a single coin, there would be panic by those in the know and Bitcoins price would almost certainly plummet. BCH too. Yes $5 billion can move the market, considerably. The marketcap only goes by last trade and has a lot less than $200 billion of actual value. 50x less potentially. Or around 2 billion.
I’d be scared if a coin ever moved but the fact that they haven’t, in so long, begs the question if Satoshi is dead. It’s just super weird that a human being wouldn’t use a penny of their resources. Bitmain however are not dead.
That’s the reality of the situation. But cryptocurrency is weird, BCH could pump tomorrow. I gave up a long time ago thinking there was any sense of rationality in this market whatsoever.

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Well said!

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