The Bitcoin Crypto-Coaster Ride – Technical Analysis Part 2
In “Bitcoin Crypto-Coaster Ride” Part 1 you will find the following quote and a technical analysis synopsis since Nov. 2, 2015. A Twitter thread documents the crypto ride since publishing Part 1.
“There will be no financial press, fundamentals, cryptophant community opinions, or geopolitical fodder provided here today, but only basic technical analysis. Why now? It appears that Bitcoin may be in the process of building another base consolidation like it did throughout 2015. Whether or not $6k is the “bottom” is a good question. The answer is that we will know if it goes there… There have been prognostications during this bear market phase occurring at every bump and dead cat bounce, with bottom callers pitching dreams of $28,000 or $100,000 or $1,000,000 just around the corner… If folks dedicated to the cryptocurrency phenomena truly believe in the potential high-end price projections, why not wait for a technically sound higher number with a low-risk, high-reward entry point before bull horning BTFD or holding (HODL) since the high, potentially ruining the finances of folks who know no better? There will always be another bus, so just be patient for the right one and be aware of the regulation landslide that is occurring across the globe.” – May 24, 2018
The following charts and analysis wrapped it up. To view a larger version of any chart, right-click on it and choose your “view image” option.
“The possibility exists for a bearish Busted Symmetrical Triangle that would rule out any $6k double or Triple Bottom play. The $11,800 peak in between the Adam & Eve Double Bottom (see daily chart above) remains a key resistance to conquer if that potential double bottom pattern holds true or morphs into a triple, where a third tap remains on the $6k line and the candlestick does not breach below the 100 Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the weekly. Also note on the daily chart that today’s low price of $7,260 has fallen back below the 50/200 EMA Death Cross. Price is currently testing support at the 50 EMA on the weekly and approaching the triangle’s lower trendline drawn back to the $6k low. The volume is falling overall with a falling price, but this is a longer-term weekly view and the volumes may only be returning to a lower daily average following the parabolic blow-off and subsequent pullback, so the lowering volumes do not necessarily signify nearing a bottom. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is still basing on the weekly, with no significant upside indicated. The bearish pattern that stands out for me is that each rally is halted at a lower Fibonacci level. The chart remains Bearish. If there is a significant bounce off the $6k level and takes out $11,800 like a knife through butter, that would be a Bullish development.”
On Sep. 2, 2018, a “short slaughter” rumor appeared on Twitter. I attempted to squash it with a reference to previous analysis.
On Sep. 16, the bitcoin chart looked like this…
I posted the following alert on Oct. 29 as price averaged $6,400 at that hour, and a chart at the beginning of the plunge when price breached $6,100 on Nov. 14.
Here we are today. The first chart is a FOREX BTC/USD feed since Aug. 2013. The second is a close-up from Bitcoin Wisdom for volume flow.
Bitcoin weekly, Nov. 23, 2018, 11am EST…
Bitcoin weekly, Nov. 24, 2018, 5:15pm EST…
What prompted the Oct. 29 heads-up was a collapse in volume along with a sell candle that followed the Plunger (aka Shooting Star). Last week the Descending Triangle’s lower trendline was decisively breached with a $5,432 low. The price fall was unabated throughout Thanksgiving week and a low of $3,812 has printed as I type this. Sell volume is rising along with a fall in price which is indicative of downside strength. All Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) are history, the 78.6% Fibonacci retrace level is breached, and the DMI-ADX is forming a negative Alligator Tongue that reinforces the downside trend. The remaining support levels are at laterals that coincide with buy volumes in the past. Next support chimes in between $1,800 and $3,200. The 200 Simple Moving Average (SMA) is currently sitting at $3,100 on the FOREX chart.
Severe technical damage has occurred with a potential for further downside. This is not a time to catch a falling knife and be a gambling hero. If you are adamant about bitcoin and were savvy about taking profits off the table on price strength months ago, wait until a well defined uptrend comes into view. The $6k lateral will be formidable resistance going forward. Ignore the bottom callers and focus on the charts.
An ongoing selection of charts and commentary on bitcoin since Nov. 2015 are located at my bitcoin portfolio project.
Takabisha Roller Coaster, Japan
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Original Article Available HERE