Beyond Conventional Indicators: A Study of Twitter Sentiment Versus Crypto Prices

in bitcoin •  3 months ago

From Cryptoglobe

Social media are ever more present in everyday life, reflecting and influencing behaviour. This is increasingly being recognized within the traditional financial sector, as evidence is mounting that Twitter sentiment can forecast asset prices. See for example Twitter as a tool for forecasting stock market movements: A short-window event study or Predictive Sentiment Analysis of Tweets: A Stock Market Application.

Looking to the future or past?
Within the crypto space, indicators are mainly technical, meaning that they are relying on past prices to predict future returns. Though sometimes effective, past prices do not capture changing market conditions. Prediction of asset prices means gathering information about the future, not about the past. A technical indicator cannot account for an impending change in regulation boosting the price, or a Pyramid scheme or scam dramatically causing the price to drop. This means that technical indicators (if they do seem to work for a short time) have only limited efficacy.

Exploring the future
With this in mind, we set out to see what sentiment analysis has to offer in relation to cryptocurrency prices.

More specifically, we started scraping and analysing Twitter data in order to gauge if this would prove to be a helpful indicator.

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I think the recent breakup of a massive twitter bot network shilling an ethereum scam proves that there is indeed a link between twitter sentiment and the crypto ecosystem. I think it both reacts to the market and the market reacts to twitter.

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Interesting point of view. I must say that I never thought about this. But, thinking of the importance that social media play especially in the crypto space (and twitter is one of the most widely used), I surely agree with this position.