Be Careful When Listening to Predictions

in bitcoin •  11 months ago

Its been increasingly harder for me to go to the bitcoin subreddits these days because more and more often I see ridiculous claims being made across the board. People who have been wrong multiple times on the price are making predictions trying to create artificial FOMO and pump the price. These are the same people that did this during 2013 and then disappeared during the 2014-16 bear market. You need to be skeptical when evaluating these people and really look at their past as an indication that they dont know what they are talking about.

No one knows what they are talking about because no one can tell the future. To say bitcoin will be x in 2020 is just a flat out guess pulled out of a prison wallet. McAfee thinks bitcoin will be a million by 2020 but once you start looking at the amount of investment needed to go into the space, you will realize it is pretty much impossible. You would need a large part of the entire world economy to move over to crypto overnight, which I hate to be the bearer of bad news but that isnt going to happen.

Good things take time and instead of focusing on these predictions and expecting to be a multimillionaire in a few year, you need to just live your life and forget about it. Hold what you think it right, be fiscally responsible, but don't bet the house because nothing is guaranteed. Theres a common misconception that going from one dollar to one hundred dollars (a 100x increase) is the same as going from 10000 to a million (another 100x increase). The truth is that the required money needed to push that same amount up is exponentially harder to get, don't forget that.

I love bitcoin and I love cryptocurrency, but I see way too many people betting the house and seriously risking themselves for no reason. I have always been a huge supporter of hedging bets and not going all in because I don't want to see people risk themselves in ways when they don't need to. It truly breaks my heart when I see people say things like “ I invested my life savings at $19,000 and I now im thinking of killing myself”. These are real posts I see and many times these people did it because they see billionaires who probably only have at max 20% of their portfolios, saying it will go to 100k by next year.

This is a bit of a rant because I spent some time this morning browsing various subreddits after having ignored them for a while. Its easy to just say hold but for many people they worked their entire life for the amount of savings they are risking on what is still a risky bet. I personally have a large percentage of my net worth in crypto but I would never suggest someone go the same route as me. I earned it all through crypto and have taken out an amount that I can survive off of, so if I lose it I can still get myself to a good place. I don't ever want to risk someones well being or retirement on a random guess and I think its irresponsible for others to do so.


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I'm curious as to why your avatar is a picture of Bob Saget?


Lol I dont think I could even explain myself. Its just funny. :)


Best reason ever.

Good article, I think when all is said and done a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money. Including here on steemit

Very sensible advice IMHO!!!

Thank you very much for the awareness post.
Great to share.