Bitcoin heading for another record weekly close and why I'm staying the hell away from the CFD market for a while

in #bitcoin4 years ago (edited)

What a run eh? Bitcoin's heading for another record weekly close and also the biggest up-week in history:

The thing just won't stop. Since it bottomed in late August, it's been doing an average of 625 points a week. If that momentum continues, that would take us to 10 000 before Christmas. In percentage terms, the run is even more impressive: 17% per week and 10K before the end of November.

Great right? Well personally, I'm starting to get a little worried and I've adjusted my risk profile accordingly. When pair first breached 7000 earlier in the week, we got a little preview of what happens when greed and mania take hold:

2 x Daily ATR in under an hour ... for those of you who aren't familiar with the lingo, that means we had two days worth of volatility in a single hour: 200 points up, 600 points down and another 200 back up to close lower ...

Now call me a pussy, but when I start seeing stuff like that, I stay the fuck away from 20:1 leveraged contracts. I'd already exited my 20:1 longs the night before and probably good I did, because that sort of PA would have straight up given me a heart attack. Would of made another couple K, but not much use to me dead.

Don't get me wrong - I'm still playing this rally intraday - buying dips at Bitfinex with a little leverage, but no way am I getting agro again 20:1 til this fork is out of the way and/or we get a healthy correction. I'd really like to see some corrective PA next week, but with people on the hunt for double coins, it could well just keep roaring. Bloody madness.

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I feel like people are pulling money out of all other cryptos and putting it in bitcoin to drive the price up as you can see in the graph and when it gets to a point when it is going to drop everybody is going to sell and the price will drop significantly! This is a classic pump and drop which is happening right now!

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It's moving a bit too fast and sharp I believe!

Calling @originalworks :)
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Bloody madness.

No truer words have ever been spoken.

Yep, Bitcoin is going really high these days!

I tell you man @bulleth. Thats exactly my strategy. None of these agro 20x coins will survive this 'madness' for 2x segwit until after fork when Btc relapses. But I think we may as well see another Ath each week. It happened during Btg fork. It will happen again.

If you want, you can still go long on the reliable alts and wait for them to recover from the forks.

Great thoughts, thank you for sharing! The thrill and euphoria is definitely visible in the BTC chart. It will likely start to spill over into major alts, probably closer to the end of this month...

Yeah, man I think sitting on the sideline for the next week or so just riding unlevered coins is the prudent play.

I'm hoping we get an even more crazy push coming into the fork so I can cash some profits and re-buy on the pullback (which we should get but who knows with this thing lol)

CFD trading is too risky according to my opinion.

Very detailed and personal writeup @bulleth. It's really hard to know what to do. Inaction has been profitable to date; that is, holding. All good things come to an end however. Certainly dialing down leverage when the nose starts bleeding sounds sensible to me.

Still on track for a blow-off top to coincide with the S2X fork. I want to be wrong but getting confirmation bias big time reading stuff like this :)